Avoid straining Israel-Russia ties
Russia under President Vladimir Putin has reverted to the days of the Soviet Union on some key issues. This has resulted in more disagreement with Israel and competing interests. The fact that Russia is once again pursuing a more active role in the Middle East attests to this change.
As early as the 1770s, Russia wanted to get its feet wet in the warm waters of the region, but it abandoned its efforts throughout the 30 years that preceded the 1967 Six-Day War.
What ultimately led to the dissolution of the fragile Israeli-Arab armistice that year was a statement made by then-Chief of Staff Yitzhak Rabin, who warned Syria that if it continued to sabotage the efforts to divert the Jordan River, Israel might overthrow its regime. This was the last straw. The Soviets considered this a threat because for the first time in Syria's history, it was led by a Communist. Rabin's statement had Moscow enlist the help of then-Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, hoping that Israel would be deterred if he assumed a more aggressive posture on its southern border. The rest, as they say, is history.
Moscow's involvement in the Arab-Israeli conflict peaked in 1970, during the War of Attrition. That year, Israeli fighter jets downed Russian MiGs over the Sinai. Then-Defense Minister Moshe Dayan said that Israel had to pay close attention to what the Soviets were doing in Egypt, using the analogy of pressing one's ear against the ground to figure out the path of elephants in the jungle. The Israeli clash with the Soviets ultimately ended when a cease-fire was announced.
Now the Russians are back and have already sent a small contingent to Syria. But the political climate is different. Unlike in 1967, Jerusalem and Moscow are not estranged and have diplomatic relations. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit the Russian capital next week to see if he and Putin can draw a line in the Middle Eastern sand. Russia has indicated that it does not want to have a spat with Israel, only to help Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime fight the Islamic State group, which it considers much more dangerous (Iran is also helping Damascus).
Russia is right in its assessment. Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot are probably talking with their Russian counterparts to coordinate their moves and set red lines. But the reality on the ground is such that no one can predict how things unfold.
Israel, which would like to preserve its air supremacy in Syria, may accidentally slide toward a confrontation with the Russians if things get out of hand.
To make things worse, Russia has also become more hostile to Israel on the global stage. The new Russian posture goes beyond the peace process with the Palestinians, and it was clearly on display this week when Russia endorsed the Arab plan to send inspectors to Israel's Dimona reactor.
Russia would like to avoid a clash with Israel, but the fact of the matter is that things could ultimately deteriorate and lead to a situation that Netanyahu and Ya'alon (as well as Putin and his army) would like to avoid, especially if Russia's efforts to protect Assad fail.
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