Syria's puppet masters

In recent weeks, the war in Syria has escalated to a new level. First with Russia's open and aggressive involvement to help Syrian President Bashar Assad, and now with thousands of Iranian soldiers, members of the Revolutionary Guard, arriving to fight on Syrian soil. On the surface the Iranians are there to save Assad's floundering regime, but in actuality their goal is to establish a presence by Tehran and its Revolutionary Guard in Syria, directly and menacingly adjacent to the Israeli border.

If anyone was still wondering what Syria will look like in a few years and what its future holds -- will it still belong to Assad; or will it be overrun by the Islamic State on its way to becoming the most prominent force in the country; or perhaps Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will be standing at the head -- the developments over the past few weeks have made it clear that Syria's future is Iranian. Indeed, Revolutionary Guard chief Ghasem Soleimani is the person most likely to dictate the outcome of the campaign in Syria and the country's future.

Iranian and Russian involvement in Syria, at least in this phase, cannot ensure Assad's triumph. To guarantee a victory would require tens of thousands of Iranian troops, perhaps even more. This, incidentally, could eventually happen, because after all, the more you eat, the greater the appetite. The current level of intervention, meanwhile, is intended to ensure Assad's survival, for now, in his strongholds in Damascus and along the coast. In essence, Assad is no longer the sole, effective ruler in those areas, but rather the Iranians and Hezbollah, and now Russia as well. The Iranians are the ones fighting along a considerable portion of the main front lines in Syria, and they have also conducted negotiations on their own behalf with the rebels, without so much as bothering to confer with Assad.

The Iranian presence in Syria is nothing new from Israel's perspective. For years already Iran's Revolutionary Guard, via its Hezbollah proxy, has held a permanent foothold along the border on the Golan Heights. Even worse, it is actively trying to escalate tensions along that border.

Iran's presence coincides with Russia's increased military buildup, as part of their joint campaign to aid the Syrian regime. Each country, however, has its own interests, and of course the level of threat each poses to Israel is different. Israel has reason to be concerned about the Russian presence, but Russia still has open lines of communication with Israel, and its leaders are not openly or discreetly calling for its destruction.

The conquest of Syria by Russia, and mainly by Iran, is another byproduct of American foreign policy in our region. It is the direct result of hesitance, lack of action and mostly weakness. It is also the direct result of the nuclear deal with Iran. This deal purports to address the nuclear question, but left the matter of Iranian subversion in the Middle East wide open. It now appears that this issue wasn't left open after all. From the Iranian perspective, the deal was a green light to renew and even expand their regional interventionism. It is therefore further proof of the new Iran's nature following the deal. It's possible that in a decade or two we will have seen that the deal sparked a profound process of change in Iran, weakening the extremists at the highest levels of power in Tehran. But for millions of Syrians, and in all likelihood millions more in the region, it will be too late.

It comes as no surprise that many in the region are convinced the U.S. secretly supports Iranian-Russian intervention in Syria, or at the very least is not really opposed to it. Precisely in the same way it is not really opposed to Iran's deepening involvement in Iraq.

Israel cannot come to terms with Iran's open and unabashed presence in Syria. He who remains silent today in the face of 1,000 or 2,000 Iranian soldiers will discover tens of thousands more tomorrow, and in another week he will watch as they bring in equipment, planes, missiles and more. Israel is completely within its right to demand -- whether from Russia or from the United States, and indirectly from Iran as well -- guarantees regarding the nature and future of Iran's presence in Syria (for example, that Iranian soldiers won't go further than Damascus or be reinforced with planes and missiles). It is preferable to be woken early rather than to painfully awaken after it's already too late.

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