Europe's new migration era

The migrant crisis transpiring in Europe has, in recent weeks, expedited efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Syrian civil war. It is clear such endeavors are hopeless. This war, we all know, will be decided on the battlefield, not around a negotiating table. Regardless, like any drowning person grasping for anything to hang on to, Europe is still clinging to the sliver of hope that the war in Syria can be brought to a conclusion -- even at the cost of leaving Bashar Assad in power -- thus stemming the tide of Syrian refugees knocking at its gates.

Presumably, it won't be long before the Europeans announce new initiatives to advance the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, in their hope that such a development would help restore stability to the Middle East and save Europe. The Europeans, however, apparently don't quite understand the world they are living in.

The Europeans, with a massive effort, will in all likelihood manage to absorb the refugees banging at their door. But we are talking about thousands of people, at most tens of thousands. This is merely the tip of the iceberg, which will fully emerge the moment millions of people in the Middle East realize that Europe is giving up and opening its gates. The Migration Period, also known as the Barbarian Invasions, which saw the migration of Germanic, Slavic and other tribes across Europe between the fourth and ninth centuries, will surely repeat itself.

To date, the war in Syria has produced some 8 million refugees, a third of the country's original population. More than 6 million of them have already found refuge in neighboring countries. Over 2 million are in Turkey, another 1.25 million are in Lebanon, about half a million are in Egypt and North Africa, and around another million are in Jordan and Iraq.

But the war in Syria is not the only conflict in our region. Over the past decade the all-out war in Iraq has displaced millions of people in that country, as has the ongoing and bloody civil war that has been tearing Libya apart for the past five years. Yemen and South Sudan are far away from Europe, but there, too, millions of people are seeking salvation and sanctuary.

These wars, largely the result of the Arab Spring, which plunged large swathes of the Middle East into complete chaos, will lead to the real spring -- the European Spring -- for those migrants from the region able to traverse the Mediterranean Sea and reach Europe's shores.

It is wrong, however, to think of the Arab Spring as the cause of the refugee problem. At the very most it was a symptom of the problem. The real problem is rooted in the uninhibited natural growth that has occurred in the Middle East, which has not coincided with sufficient economic growth to balance it.

While Europe's population over the past 50 years has grown by about a quarter, from 400 million people in 1960 to around 500 million at the start of this decade, the Middle East's population has grown fourfold -- from 100 million in 1960 to 400 million in 2010. Moreover, in more recent decades European population growth has slowed, and some countries have even recorded negative growth. In essence, any growth at all is due to the migrants there, who currently comprise some 10% of Europe's population.

On the other hand, in the Middle East populations are naturally growing unimpeded, even if at a slightly more moderate rate. In 2020, some 500 million people will reside in our region, while the forecast for 2050 predicts around 700 million.

This natural growth is depleting natural resources. We are seeing signs of global warming (this August was the hottest in recorded history), droughts and water shortages, dwindling oil reserves. What's worse is the hegemony of antiquated cultural norms alongside corrupt dictatorships, which together impede economic development and preserve a reality of backwardness in the fields of education, health and more.

The problem at Europe's doorstep, therefore, is not a few thousand refugees, nor is it a few million Syrians seeking refuge from the war ravishing their country. The problem is the tens of millions who want to leave the Arab world -- a world that offers no hope and no future -- and move to Europe.

Trains packed with refugees are making their way across Europe, but Europe has missed the proverbial train. A gloomy future is in store if it doesn't find a way to cope with the refugee problem -- whether that means finding a solution for those knocking at its gates, or absorbing those who are emerging as an important part of every European country's population.

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