The elimination of the Islamic Jihad terrorist cell that fired rockets at the Golan Heights and the Galilee area on Thursday was able to quickly defuse the escalation on the Israel-Syria border. While peace and quiet were reinstated across the northern sector, it is clear that the calm is only temporary and that it will last only a few weeks, at best. Someone in Tehran and Beirut is already planning the next attack. The attack on the northern border was nothing new, even if it introduced a new player to the area, the usually southern-sector bound Islamic Jihad, and even if it involved fire at the Galilee region, which has not happened since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. There is also nothing new about the adamant efforts by Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons to tighten their grip on the Syrian Golan Heights, where they have been biding their time with the aim of turning the Syria-Israel border into an active sector, meaning a border that experiences routine terrorist attacks. Syrian President Bashar Assad has allowed Hezbollah and the Iranians to maintain an active presence in the northern part of the Syrian Golan Heights since last year, when he lost control of most of the area to insurgents. The Shiite terrorist group and its patrons quickly began recruiting terrorists from the border-adjacent Druze village of Hader and from among Islamic Jihad operatives in Damascus. This endeavor is not a local, spontaneous effort promoted by local Syrians. This time, Israel claims, all roads lead to Tehran. Neither Iran nor Hezbollah are truly interested in a full-blown conflict along the northern border. Hezbollah has no interest in provoking a third Lebanon war that would be disastrous to the Shiites living there, as it did in 2006, while Iran does not wish to further destabilize the Assad regime, as it is investing considerable resources trying to ensure its survival. Iran and Hezbollah seek to maintain a low-intensity front, meaning mounting sporadic attacks against Israel and maintaining the option of staging a large-scale attack, should they seek to send Israel a message or retaliate for IDF operations, without risking direct confrontation. So far, Hezbollah and Iran have been able to get their way. The Israel-Syria border is not as quiet as it used to be, and the Syrian side of it is brimming with terrorist plots. Israel, for its part, prefers to suffice with measured response to any attack, meant to contain the situation while ensuring those directly responsible, if not those who sent them, are made to pay. Nevertheless, Israel cannot tolerate a prolonged reality where the Golan Heights border becomes the scene of an active conflict. Even if no one really wants to see a security escalation on the ground, all it takes is one localized incident to make things spiral out of control. Israel has to demonstrate zero tolerance not only toward those perpetrating such attacks, but also toward a reality in which rocket attacks and border skirmishes are even made possible.
Golan cannot become active front
פרופ' אייל זיסר
פרופ' אייל זיסר הוא מומחה למזה"ת ואפריקה וסגן הרקטור באוניברסיטת תל אביב
