While Israel has said it will not mount a prolonged military response to Thursday's rocket fire from Syria into the Galilee and Golan Heights, a measured response can be expected, if only to preserve Israel's primary strategic interest on the northern border -- staying out of the civil war raging in Syria. The rocket fire, perpetrated from the Quneitra area, was only a small surprise for the defense establishment, as recent assessments have indicated that several groups are seeking to carry out terrorist attacks against Israel. These groups are nearly all funded by Iran, and they enjoy Hezbollah's backing and the support of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime. They are not part of global jihad, which has organizations are scattered across the Syrian side of the border, and they strive to maintain an active terrorist front against Israel independently from the Lebanon-Israel border, most likely to avoid a misstep that would lead to a third Lebanon war. So far, Israel has been able to recognize these elements and in many cases, as reported by the media, to thwart their nefarious plans. Such efforts included preventing Hezbollah operative Jihad Mughniyeh from establishing a terrorist infrastructure in the Druze village of Hader near the border, and striking several terrorist cells trying to plant explosives on the border. It is possible Thursday's rocket fire was an attempt to introduce a new, Palestinian player into the game through Islamic Jihad in an attempt to replace the faltering Druze connection, although it is unclear whether the cell responsible for the rocket fire operates in the area regularly or if it was there solely for Thursday's attack. Despite reports to the contrary, Thursday's rocket fire most likely had nothing to do with Mohammad Allan, the Islamic Jihad member held in administrative detention who staged a 65-day hunger strike that ended on Wednesday. Allan concerns Islamic Jihad in the southern sector, where Iron Dome anti-rocket system batteries have been deployed near Beersheba and Ashdod to thwart Islamic Jihad's declared intent to fire rockets at Israel if Allan, hospitalized in serious condition, was to die. Although Allan's condition is stable, the case is being widely covered by the Palestinian media, which may lead the terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip to use the situation as an excuse to challenge both Hamas and Israel, which seek to maintain the calm on the Israel-Gaza border. The situation on the northern border is more complex, as Israel must maneuver between multiple sovereign entities. Only a fraction of the border is controlled by the Syrian military, as most of it has fallen to the Nusra Front and the Islamic State group-affiliated Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade. Given the circumstances, and that a civil war has been raging so close to the Syria-Israel border for over four years, the real achievement -- one that must be maintained -- is the fact that Thursday's event is considered an anomaly and the Israeli communities near the border have been going about their routine uninterrupted. While the IDF mounted a forceful response to the rocket fire, striking multiple Syrian military targets, Israel has no desire to be dragged into the bloody war in Syria, and the strikes sought to send a clear message to the Assad regime and re-establish deterrence. The real effort must be two-pronged: The Israeli military must intensify its intelligence gathering efforts to thwart future rocket attacks, and Israel must continue to highlight Iran's involvement in the terrorism destabilizing the Middle East and undermine Tehran's efforts to regain its foothold in the international community.
