Will Islamic State strike at Israel?

Egypt suffered one of the most brutal terrorist attacks in its history on Wednesday. Dozens of soldiers were killed, and at a very sensitive time, during the holy month of Ramadan.

The attack comprised coordinated assaults on at least 10 military posts between Rafah and el-Arish in the Sinai Peninsula, and saw dozens of terrorists, including suicide bombers, storm Egyptian military posts using advanced weapons, including Russian-made Kornet anti-tank missiles, procured by the area's terrorist groups several years ago as part of their armament efforts.

Despite their tight military grip on the area, the Egyptian forces were caught off guard and had to divert substantial forces from other sectors in Sinai to fight the terrorists and take back some of the posts that had been seized.

The Salafi terrorist groups in Sinai have become stronger over the past few years, and they have been joined by mercenaries and terrorists from other countries. Most recruits have joined Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, a jihadi group that has claimed several rocket attacks on Eilat, and which last year became officially affiliated with the Islamic State group.

In 2012, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis carried out a similar attack, infiltrating a military base and killing 17 Egyptian soldiers during Ramadan. The terrorists then breached the border with Israel and were eventually killed in an Israeli airstrike.

The 2012 attack became a milestone in Egypt's war on terror. It prompted significant reinforcement of Egyptian troops in Sinai, including a special dispensation from Israel for Egypt to introduce weapons and large military deployment in the area, officially barred under the security arrangements detailed in the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty.

Wednesday's events in Egypt were closely monitored by Israel's top government and military echelons, despite the assumption that at this time, the terrorists are unlikely to train their sights on the Israeli border.

The concern in Israel goes beyond the potential deterioration in Egypt's ability to govern Sinai, which in turn will surely make the peninsula-entrenched terrorist groups more brazen in their actions. Israel's concern is over the impact this will have on the Gaza Strip, especially given the close ties between the Salafi groups in Sinai and Gaza, and the fact that the Salafi groups in Gaza are actively trying to undermine Hamas rule.

The link between Wednesday's attacks and the recent wave of terror at the heart of Egypt is clear. Earlier this week, Egyptian Prosecutor General Hisham Barakat was assassinated in Cairo, most likely by Muslim Brotherhood supporters seeking to mark the two-year anniversary of the end of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi's regime.

This prompted the Egyptian authorities to deploy large security forces to maintain order in other parts of Egypt, thus decreasing their presence in Sinai. Nevertheless, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has already proved he is committed to fighting terrorism, and it is highly likely that Israel would afford Egypt any aid necessary in this fight, knowing that should Cairo fail, Israel may find itself in the cross-hairs of Islamic State terrorists.

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