It's possible that the news about internationally mediated talks for a cease-fire -- a sort of hudna (Arabic for "calm") -- between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip were nothing more than a trial balloon. And it's possible that there are talks, but that they won't bear any fruit. And there may indeed be talks, during which there will be an outcry from both sides of the security fence, and yet, it may be worth it. A five-year cease-fire, or even a small break -- a truce, if not "an end to the conflict" -- would save Israel two operations like Cast Lead and Protective Edge. At least two. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak know that these operations bring with them two-three years of relative calm at most. So five years like that would save lives and prevent terrible destruction as well as prevent at least two Goldstone reports bearing other names. The price? Stronger Hamas rule in Gaza, more prepared Hamas militants who are ready for the next round with Israel and tunnel digging, of course. Initiatives like an internationally supervised port and extensive construction are, in the eyes of many Israelis, a high price to pay for a very short period of calm, and yet for others they are a solid foundation upon which to extend the cease-fire. Meanwhile, the passing time will be used to increase the gap between the military capabilities of the IDF and Hamas and to strengthen the Gaza border communities. It is also possible that Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi's softened stance toward Hamas means that if talks turn to actions, al-Qaida will be eradicated from the Sinai, which will then return to Egyptian hands -- leaving Israel with one less nuisance that could have otherwise spread. Winston Churchill once said, "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." As talks continue somewhere in secret -- and the path remains long and risky -- everyone will see what they choose to see. We can assume that if the negotiations take place without the cultivation of false hopes, with just the dull mundanities, they may have reasonable outcome. That is, as long as we remain vigilant, and the residents of the south and the IDF don't get swept up in the euphoria. That would be a worthy outcome after Cast Led and Protective Edge. If, as a consequence, there is a five-year hudna that puts the Palestinian Authority leadership in Ramallah in its place of its own fault, I don't think anyone in Israel would feel badly about it.
