The IDF was forced on Wednesday to respond to media reports of major drama taking place just across the border in the Golan Heights. The border is quiet, IDF officials explained, and there is no real danger to the Druze in Syria, so hysteria is not necessary. It would have been better, however, if the words "for now" had been added to the end of these statements. Top IDF officers are experienced enough to know that the situation on the border could be completely different tomorrow from what it is today. Events in Syria are driven by their own dynamics, and they may develop in ways different from what Israeli officials expect (or want). The focus of attention right now is the Syrian Druze village of Hader, located in one of the few areas in the Golan region still controlled by Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime. Contrary to reports circulated by Israeli Druze, who are worried about the fate of their brethren in Syria, the fighting this week has taken place near, but not inside Hader, and there certainly has not been a massacre of Druze there. Rebel groups have seized two Syrian military positions near the village, but have, as of now, not entered it. Perhaps because both the Nusra Front and the Islamic State group have had a general policy so far of not harming the Druze throughout Syria. The rebels might also fear a clash with the residents of Hader, many of whom are armed and trained to fight. Additionally, there might be an Israel-related reason. Israel has delivered clear messages to rebel groups in Syria, cautioning them not to harm the Druze. The IDF knows the situation could change rapidly, and it is making the requisite preparations. While the State of Israel has a blood covenant with its own Druze community, it does not plan to absorb thousands of Druze refugees from Syria. Yet the IDF's public commitment to preventing the massacre of Syrian Druze could leave Israel facing a dilemma, as Israeli Druze increase the pressure on the Israeli government to help their brethren across the border. If Hader is seized by the rebels and there is a mass exodus of its residents, the IDF will seek to establish a buffer zone on the Syrian side of the border fence where Druze refugees could gather safely. Only wounded refugees would be permitted to enter Israel itself, where they would receive medical treatment. It is doubtful this would be enough to deal with the situation and Israel must plan for scenarios where things spin out of control. But Israel's overriding aim must remain as it has been -- to avoid, as much as possible, getting drawn into the Syrian civil war.
