Growing tension in the north

After the airstrikes in Syria in recent days which were attributed to the Israeli Air Force, Hezbollah faces a dilemma. For the first time since the round of escalation that erupted in January after the killing of Jihad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah must decide how to respond to a reported Israel action.

In the past, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed his group would respond not just to Israeli actions conducted in Lebanon, but also those carried out on Syrian soil. According to Arab media reports, the most recent Israeli action took place in the al-Qalamoun area of Syria, near the border with Lebanon. So if Nasrallah remains true to his word, there could be a response.

Until now, Hezbollah has been careful to avoid igniting a war with Israel. Its responses to the detonation of a listening device in southern Lebanon last September in which one of its operatives was killed and the airstrike in January in which Mughniyeh was eliminated were proportional and focused mostly on the Mount Dov and Mount Hermon areas.

This might also be the case this time around. A volley of rocket fire or the targeting of an Israeli border patrol with an explosive device would fulfill Hezbollah's need to respond, without breaking the rules of the game. The Israel Defense Forces must strive to ensure it does not provide Hezbollah with any easy targets.

In any case, it is impossible to ignore the tension which has been slowly growing on Israel's northern front. Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon have recently spoken explicitly about the acceleration of Iran's efforts to arm Hezbollah and this matter has been brought up in meetings between Israeli government officials and their foreign counterparts.

It appears that some of the weaponry targeted in the recent strikes was meant to replenish Hezbollah's warehouses which have been depleted during the ongoing civil war in Syria, but it is also likely that some of the weaponry was of a strategic nature intended for use in a future conflict with Israel.

A Syrian surface-to-surface missile brigade is based in the area which was struck, so, if foreign reports are correct, it is quite possible the purpose of the operation was to thwart the transfer of missiles from Syria to Lebanon.

Israel has repeatedly pledged to prevent the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah and a number of similar strikes have been attributed to Israel over the past few years. Yet despite Israel's monitoring and reported strikes, it is reasonable to believe that Hezbollah has succeeded in getting a number of weapons shipments into Lebanon, including precision missiles, anti-aircraft systems and anti-ship systems.

Assuming Israel's policy does not change and Hezbollah continues to arm itself and live up to its pledges to respond to Israeli actions, a number of powder kegs will remain on the ground, particularly given the effort Hezbollah is investing in establishing a front against Israel on the Golan Heights.

Neither side currently has a clear interest in escalation, but both must be wary of an isolated event or response that could throw the northern front into a dangerous downward spiral.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו