As celebrations in Tehran and Washington over the framework nuclear deal reached last week begin to wane, it seems it is time for someone to foot the bill. The moderate Sunni Arab states, which consider themselves America's allies in the region, are quickly coming to the realization that the U.S. not only expects them to pay for this meal -- it expects them to become part of a menu meant to satisfy Iran's hunger. Much has already been said about the dangers the deal being negotiated between U.S. President Barack Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani harbors not only for Israel, but for all the region's states. The threat stretches beyond what may take place in the Middle East a decade or more from now, when Iran decided to become a nuclear state. This decision is not on the Iranian agenda at this time, and they may very well choose to put it off for a few years, until the regional and global circumstances allow them to make it with minimum repercussions. The problem lies with the backing lent to the Iranian regime by Washington, to say nothing of the diplomatic leeway and -- following the removal of the sanctions -- economic freedom for Iran to become more brazen than before, and augment its regional influence at the expense of the moderate Arab states and Israel. Iran has marked three circles of influence in the region over the past few years, and it is likely to become more active in each of them, therefore making the threat it poses more tangible. The first circle comprises the long-dominated Iranian strongholds in Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, which is battling to survive, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza are all financially and militarily dependent on Tehran, as they desperately need Iran's aid if they are to survive fighting their enemies. It is clear that the American-Iranian deal affords the latter considerable leeway and an even greater ability to lend such assistance. Therefore, it is not only the Iranians who will enjoy the economic benefits Iran stands to garner from the deal, but also Hezbollah and Hamas operatives, whose paychecks and equipment come directly from the Iranian pocket. The second circle comprises the majority of Syria's territory, which is controlled by Sunni rebels, and the parts of Lebanon that have yet to fall to Hezbollah. It also includes Iraq and Yemen, where the Shiite population has been driven into Iran's arms, only to be encouraged by Tehran to mimic Hezbollah's actions in Lebanon and become front-line soldiers for Iran in Iraq and on the shores of the Red Sea. Washington had welcomed Iran's moves in the region even prior to reaching the framework deal, as they undermine the radical Sunni groups, which the U.S. sees as the real threat to its interests in the Middle East. The third circle comprises the Persian Gulf states, such as Bahrain, which has a Shiite majority, the United Arab Emirates, and even Saudi Arabia, whose western region has a vast Shiite population. These nations will surely feel Iran's influence sooner rather than later as it strives to encourage Shiites to rise against the regimes in their countries. These are more than plans for the distant future, but rather concrete and immediate Iranian ploys. The Iran-U.S. deal has done more than allow Iran to advance its nuclear efforts, it has cemented its position as a legitimate regional power, one who is party to negotiations held by the "big boys"-- the five existing nuclear powers, which Iran has now joined. Tehran has always coveted this position, which means more than mere status and respect -- it entails the expansion of Iran's influence on a theater that stretches beyond the Persian Gulf to include what Tehran considered the "security belt," and spans from Iran to the western shores of the Mediterranean, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and even Israel. This is what lies in the root of the Arab world's angst over the deal that was formulated in Switzerland. And so, while Washington and Tehran celebrate and Israel is anxiously waiting to see what comes next, the Arab world is preparing to foot the bill.
