The Persian bazaar in Lausanne
, עודכן
Another chapter in the long and absurd Iranian nuclear saga was marked on Tuesday, as world powers, led by U.S. President Barack Obama, sought to find a diplomatic solution to one of greatest dangers threatening world peace.
Iran, a country under sanctions, hardened its tone on Tuesday and even withdrew some concessions it had previously offered. This was because Iran sensed the West's weakness. The negotiations are like a Persian bazaar. Since the Iranians know the customer wants an agreement, why should they lower the price-
It was clear from the start that the representatives of Iran and the six world powers involved in the talks would not return from Lausanne with just chocolates in their suitcases. They wanted a framework agreement, a memorandum of understanding or at least a joint declaration of some sort.
So what was the obstacle on Tuesday? A European source told Israel Hayom that the Iranians refused to accept the idea of positive, confidence-building steps by one side being matched by similar steps by the other. Instead, the Iranians want all the sanctions lifted at once.
The Iranians came to Lausanne with a list of serious demands. They want all sanctions lifted after a final deal is signed on June 30 and they want to keep their hands on their low-enriched uranium, of which they already have eight tons. If enriched to a 90% level, this uranium could be used to build six atomic bombs.
The Iranians are also insisting on keeping the right to continue nuclear research and development, including on a new generation of advanced centrifuges. And finally, they want the duration of the agreement to be shorter than what world powers are seeking. Iran wants the deal to last no more than ten years, after which it would become a "normal" country.
Moreover, the Iranians have certainly not agreed to reveal the military aspects of their nuclear program. So can someone explain what all the optimism was about on Tuesday-
Like in a Persian bazaar, the Iranians came to Lausanne with the goal of selling their product at the highest price. But instead of a carpet, they brought their nuclear program. What is astounding in this story is that the world is prepared to make a deal, even though the end result will be a nuclear-armed Iran.
The U.S. negotiating team led the Iranians know that, with all due respect to the White House, Congress also has a say and it will not agree to a deal at any price. This, by the way, should be food for thought for those pondering whether it was worth it for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress on Iran last month.
We did not need to wait for Tuesday's midnight deadline to know what the details of the emerging agreement look like. It will be limited in time (10 to 15 years) and sanctions will be lifted gradually, which will boost the Iranian economy and return Iran to the family of nations. This was supposed to be the big story on Tuesday. The delegations were supposed to arrive at the U.N. building in Geneva to sign an agreement. But then the Persian bazaar mentality came into play. The Iranians have always had excellent diplomatic patience.
The Americans cannot return home empty-handed. On April 14, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is set to vote on a bill that would require Obama to seek approval by Congress for any agreement signed with Iran. On the Iranian nuclear issue, Obama knows he cannot rely even on Democratic senators. And the American media is continuing to raise questions about the nature of a deal with Iran.
And that is not all. Republican senators are waiting the results of the Lausanne talks and it is no secret that they will push for additional sanctions on Iran if the talks fail. As Democrats also do not necessarily believe the Iranians, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry cannot take any chances by letting the talks fail.
A Washington Post poll found that a majority of Americans do not believe a deal with Iran will prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Given all of this, can the Obama administration really afford a failure of the Lausanne talks? And the Iranians understood this from the beginning.
So what now? On Tuesday evening, the deadline was extended and talks were to continue into Wednesday.
Israel is not participating in the negotiations in Lausanne, but Netanyahu's name has been frequently mentioned by Iranian journalists in the press room where the talks are taking place. "If he hadn't made all this noise, there would have been a deal long ago," one Iranian journalist said of Netanyahu.
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