Why Yemen matters
, עודכן
The Middle East witnessed something radically new two days ago, when the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia responded to a plea by Yemen's president and led a 10-country coalition to intervene from the air and on the ground in the country. "Operation Decisive Storm" prompts many reflections:
The alliance between Saudi Arabia and Egypt: Half a century ago, Riyadh and Cairo were active in a Yemen war, but back then they were on opposing sides -- the status-quo forces and the revolutionaries. The fact that they are now allies points to continuity in Saudi Arabia along with profound changes in Egypt.
Arabic speakers getting their act together: During the early decades of Israel's existence, Arab nations dreamed of uniting militarily against it. But the reality of infighting and rivalries shattered these hopes every time. Even on the three occasions (1948-49, 1967, 1973) when they did join forces, they did so at cross purposes and ineffectively. How striking, then that finally they should coalesce not against Israel but against Iran. This implicitly points to their understanding that the Islamic Republic of Iran poses a real threat, whereas anti-Zionism amounts to mere indulgence. It also points to panic and the need to take action resulting from a stark American retreat.
Yemen at the center of attention: Yemen has traditionally played a peripheral role -- in the Bible, in the rise of Islam, and in modern times. It has never been the focus of world attention -- until now. Yemen resembles other once-marginal countries -- the Koreas, Cuba, the Vietnams, Afghanistan -- which out of nowhere became the focus of global concern.
The Middle East cold war becoming hot: The Iranian and Saudi regimes have been heading dueling blocs for about a decade. They did combat, much like the U.S. and Soviet governments once did, via contending ideologies, espionage, aid, trade, and covert action. On March 26, that cold war went hot, where it is likely to remain.
Can the Saudi-led coalition win- Highly unlikely, as these are rookies taking on Iran's battle-hardened allies in a forbidding terrain.
Islamists dominate: The leaders of both blocs have a lot in common. Both aspire universally to apply the sacred law of Islam (the Shariah), both despise infidels, and both turned faith into ideology. Their falling out confirms Islamism as the Middle East's only game, permitting its proponents the luxury of fighting each other.
The Turkey-Qatar-Muslim Brotherhood alliance is in decline: A third alliance of Sunni revisionists somewhere between the Shiite revolutionaries and the Sunni status-quo has been active during recent years in many countries -- Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya. But now, in part thanks to diplomacy initiated by the brand-new Saudi King Salman, its members are gravitating toward their Sunni co-religionists.
Isolated Iran: Yes, a belligerent Tehran now boasts of dominating four Arab capitals (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa) but that is also its problem. Abrupt Iranian gains have many in the region (including such previously friendly states as Pakistan and Sudan) fearing Iran.
Sidelining the Arab-Israeli conflict: While the Obama administration and European leaders remain obsessed with Palestinians, seeing them as key to the region, regional players have far more urgent priorities. Not only does Israel hardly concern them but the Jewish state serves as a tacit auxiliary of the Saudi-led bloc. Does this indicate a long-term shift in Arab attitudes toward Israel? Probably not. When the Iran crisis fades, expect the focus to return to the Palestinians and Israel, as it always does.
American policy in disarray: Middle East hands rightly scoffed in 2009 when U.S. President Barack Obama and his fellow naïfs expected that by leaving Iraq, smiling at Tehran, and trying harder at Arab-Israeli negotiations, they would fix the region, permitting a "pivot" to East Asia. Instead, the incompetents squatting atop the U.S. government cannot keep up with fast-moving, adverse events, many of them of its own creation (anarchy in Libya, tensions with traditional allies, a more bellicose Iran).
Impact on a deal with Iran: Although Washington has folded on many issues in the negotiations with Iran, and has done the mullah regime many favors (for example, not listing it or its Hezbollah ally as a terrorist group), it drew a line in Yemen, offering the anti-Iran coalition some support. Will Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei now stomp out of the talks? Highly unlikely, for the deal offered him is too sweet to turn down.
In conclusion, Salman's skilled diplomacy and his readiness to use force in Yemen responds to the deadly combination of Arab anarchy, Iranian aggression, and Obama weakness in a way that will shape the region for years.
Daniel Pipes is president of the Middle East Forum
