There is one thing various media commentators have neglected to give a second thought to in the current election campaign: the fact that 49% of Israelis believe Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu is best suited for the position of prime minister. Only 36% of Israelis think the same of Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog. The latest polls, however, predict the Likud will win only 21 Knesset seats in next week's election, while the Herzog-led Zionist Union is poised to win 25 seats. The surveys are unanimous in saying Israelis prefer Netanyahu as their prime minister, and not Herzog or Zionist Union No. 2 Tzipi Livni, but the nature of the Israeli electoral system and the dispersion of votes within the Right could lead to Netanyahu losing the election. When it comes to the test of ideology, the Left lost a long time ago. The Left's own officials and advisers concede that the Israeli public is becoming more rightist in its views as the years go by, and this is why every election campaign sees the Left attempt to devise creative ways to circumvent the obstacle posed by the public's wishes. The Left's attempts to come to power include shifting public focus from diplomatic issues to other things -- socio-economic affairs or matters of religion and state -- in a bid to court right-wing voters, or forming various "centrist" parties, whose sole purpose is to see votes migrate from the Right to the Left. Naturally, the social agenda dissipates the day after the election, and the prime minister dedicates the majority of his time and energy to diplomatic issues. When Ehud Barak was elected prime minister in 1999, for example, he immediately relinquished his promise to reform the healthcare system in favor of dashing to Shepherdstown, where he tried to cede the Golan Heights to then-Syrian President Hafez Assad. Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid portrays his party as "centrist," but there is little doubt he will support any move entailing the ceding of territory. Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon may have been a Likud hawk for a time, and he may profess himself as a "true Likudnik" even now, but his adamant refusal to name the candidate he plans to endorse as prime minister following the election raises doubts. These doubts were recently multiplied by the fact that Yoav Galant, Kahlon's No. 2, has already declared that Kulanu's first post-election deal will be with Yisrael Beytenu head Avigdor Lieberman and its second deal will be with Herzog. True, Galant has no say real in the matter, but how can we be sure his statement did not reflect Kulanu's true plan- Another fact many seem oblivious to is that if the Likud loses the election to the Zionist Union, in two years' time Livni will become prime minister. One has to wonder if Lapid and Kahlon's voters are keeping that in mind.
Rightist public may be saddled with leftist government
מתי טוכפלד
הפרשן הפוליטי של "ישראל היום". התחיל את דרכו העיתונאית ברדיו "קול חי", המקומון "מלאבס" של רשת שוקן וב"מקור ראשון". שימש ככתב פוליטי של "ישראל היום" מהקמתו ועד מינויו לפרשן הפוליטי. במהלך עבודתו הוביל את סיקור התחום הפוליטי בשורה ארוכה של חשיפות וגילויים על המתרחש במסדרונות הכנסת ובמשרדי הממשלה. נשוי לנעמה ואב לחמישה ילדים. מתגורר בירושלים.
