Tuesday's nightly news, on radio and television, were essentially one dizzying media circus. Polls were thrown left and right. It was one big Ferris wheel of poll numbers that went up and down. The voter trends appeared to show an uptick of support for the Zionist Union and Habayit Hayehudi. The rival campaign headquarters could be heard reciting Scarlett O'Hara's immortal quote from "Gone With the Wind": "After all, tomorrow is another day." Most pollsters do their job professionally. The charts they produce serve as an important, sometimes exclusive tool for politicians. When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trains his fire on Habayit Hayehudi, and when Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog lashes out at Yesh Atid, they do so based on poll numbers. But as with everything else in life, there is a catch. It seems as if I have been repeating myself each election cycle since 2006, but I will say it yet again: the average Israeli's voting behavior has a disorienting effect on pollsters, who fail to pick up on late surges. These usually involve a large number of swing voters who all of a sudden switch their allegiances to a certain party in a herd mentality. This produces an election surprise pundits like to call a "bonanza." In 2006, pollsters ate some crow when the Pensioners Party skyrocketed late in the game. This paved the way for Ehud Olmert's government. In 2009, voters defected to Kadima just before the election. But then party chairwoman Tzipi Livni failed to assemble a coalition. In 2013, it was Yesh Atid's Yair Lapid who got the bonanza. Will someone else get this prize this time around? The election lottery is already in full swing, but nobody knows for sure what will happen. Whether or not the 2015 election will see a similar phenomenon is far from certain. Nor is there a particular party that is poised to benefit from such a development. Since this election is not about domestic issues (with the sole exception of housing prices), there is no way of discerning the voters' sentiment as they enter the polling booth. In 1981, it was the late entertainer Dudu Topaz who helped re-elect Menachem Begin by delivering a stupid speech in which he essentially called Mizrahi Jews unintelligent trash. Painter Yair Garbuz's recent comments are just as derogatory and silly. Perhaps Netanyahu will be the beneficiary of his misstep. But political gaffes do not register immediately with voters. Sometimes they do not register at all. In the final analysis, there is one person who should be commended for his conduct: President Reuven Rivlin. He has been actively engaging skeptical, or otherwise apathetic, Israelis, telling them they are duty-bound to show up at the polling stations. This is important for democracy. It is good for stability. It is good for the big parties, whose would-be voters are the most apathetic. There is still a long way to go before the votes are tallied.
