Choose quiet, despite the pain

According to reasoning based on the information from foreign sources, the strike against Hezbollah operatives and the Iranian general in the Golan Heights 11 days ago was a strategic move designed to materialize Israel's decision to prevent its nearby enemies from establishing a terrorist base. The decision was fueled by a real need and not by electoral considerations. When the details about the decision surface, it will also become clear that the way in which the strike was carried out on the convoy in Syria was the only plan available to the ones attacking at the time. In their decision to attack the terrorist convoy, they also had to consider the possibility that Israel would be a target for revenge. Hence the fire from Syria into the Golan (to which Israel responded with an airstrike) and the anti-tank missiles fired from Lebanon that killed two Israeli soldiers on Wednesday. Hezbollah's response was "in the cards"

Hezbollah's revenge against Israel was measured and of reasonable intensity. However, the deaths of two combat soldiers and the wounding of their friends make it difficult for the government to shrug off. Certainly not 48 days before the Knesset elections and facing the expected verbal attack from Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.

But a mature Israeli government does not act according to inclinations of the heart. It understands that, unlike the strategic attack on the convoy manned with Hezbollah and Iranian terrorists, any Israeli fire now would be fueled by the desire to settle the score, take revenge and increase deterrence. These are all worthy goals, but they fall short of strategic goals.

Showing responsible, mature restraint is not easy. It contradicts the natural desire for justice among the Israelis who cannot put down their sword; it raises the concern that restraint would be seen as Israeli weakness in the eyes of the ayatollahs and the Hezbollah leadership, and they will be dragged into escalating the conflict; it also raises the concern that the voting public is inclined towards a policy of punishment at any price and without proportionality.

With deterrence and prestige on one hand and the benefit in having things return to how they were on the other, continued quiet along the northern border is the clear choice. Since Israel did not attack Wednesday night, there is a chance that quiet with Hezbollah has been achieved, A chance. Not security. Moreover, there is no assurance that the score has been settled with Iran, which may play out, God forbid, in faraway countries as well.

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