A disturbing new reality in the north

Even if the flare-up in the north has been extinguished, it sent a disturbing message: The northern front is awakening, both on the Syrian and Lebanese borders, and it is doubtful that Hezbollah is deterred from acting again.

The Israel Defense Forces has yet to officially declare a return to normalcy, but the messages Israel received from Hezbollah, via UNIFIL, indicated that Hezbollah was seeking calm. Despite the heavy price paid, Israel's defense establishment can move on from the recent events in the north. Israel reportedly dealt Hezbollah a strategic blow and struck the operational infrastructure Hezbollah had established on the Syrian side of the border in the Golan Heights, while Hezbollah responded with a mere tactical strike against Israel.

It is doubtful that Hezbollah would agree to this characterization of recent events. In Hezbollah's eyes, it suffered a military blow and then delivered a military blow in return. For Hezbollah, its main accomplishment was its ability to exact a price from Israel without setting off a wide-scale conflagration. Hezbollah will also view Israel's timid response on Wednesday as evidence that deterrence is a two-way street. Both sides are not interested in escalation at this time.

The decision of Israel's diplomatic-security echelon to refrain from a more severe reaction serves one immediate goal -- calm on the border with Lebanon. At the same time, Israeli officials are keeping their eyes on the main goal -- preventing the opening of an active terror front in the Golan Heights. This was apparently the reason for both the reported strike that killed Jihad Mughniyeh on Jan. 18 and the targeting of Syrian military positions on Tuesday night in response to the rocket attacks on Mount Hermon earlier in the day.

It will take time to determine if the message was received and Hezbollah will be deterred from operating again in the Golan Heights. Most official Israeli entities believe the answer is no and that the renewal of Hezbollah's activities in the Har Dov area indicates a significant change in the security reality in the north. This is bad news, because the consequences of this change are far-reaching and problematic. The concern is that we are now on a downward slope to another war in the north, sooner or later.

Even if both sides do not want such a war to take place, the IDF must take advantage of the upcoming time period to boost its readiness (mostly in the operational realm) for such a scenario. Lessons must be learned from both Operation Protective Edge and the recent events in the north -- for example, regarding the use of "soft" vehicles in threatened sectors. However, the IDF said the use of such vehicles in the area at the bottom of Har Dov was not problematic. This is an area that is open to civilian traffic and the Kornet missiles used by Hezbollah would also have penetrated armored vehicles and killed their occupants.

Even if all this is true, we must change how we look at the northern front. Both the borders with Syria and Lebanon are now not just hostile ones, but also theaters of war, requiring a change of operational behavior and thinking. Given the current frenzy in the Middle East, it will not be long before something happens, someone attacks and someone gets killed. From there, it will be a short road to the next round of fighting.

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