It is highly unlikely that Tuesday's rocket fire in the Golan Heights was Hezbollah's response to the strike that killed six of its operatives last week. At most, this was the opening act, some sort of declaration of intent, as well as a clear message to Israel -- the northern sector, and especially the Golan Heights, is an active theater and fair game for terrorist attacks. At this time, for whatever reason, Hezbollah has chosen to avoid mounting a resounding response: The Shiite terrorist organization may be wary of provoking a full-fledged conflict with Israel that its Iranian patrons may see as ill-timed; it may be because Hezbollah is neck-deep in the civil war raging in Syria; or it could be because Hezbollah is wary of the criticism levelled at it in Lebanon. The reason, unfortunately, may also be much more sinister, as it is possible that Hezbollah is still plotting its revenge, or that it has yet to find a target deemed attractive enough. While biding its time, Hezbollah has decided to remind Israel that it is still a force to be reckoned with, and there is little doubt in anyone's mind that Hezbollah was responsible for Tuesday's rocket fire. The infrastructure used may have been put in place by Samir Kuntar, a heinous terrorist Israel released as part of a 2008 exchange deal for the remains of two Israeli soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, who were abducted and killed by Hezbollah in 2006. This infrastructure is comprised of Druze living on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, who are believed to have carried out several terrorist attacks in 2014, including firing rockets at military posts on Mount Hermon. However, after several operatives were mysteriously decommissioned, Hezbollah decided to replace this infrastructure with a more professional one, headed by Jihad Mughniyeh, who was killed last week. Tuesday's rocket fire on the northern border was likely meant to remind Israel that despite Mughniyeh's death, the Golan Heights may soon become the scene of terrorist attacks, especially retaliatory ones, should Israel strike any weapons convoys. Hezbollah is better served if it retaliates from the Syrian border. It is a way for the terrorist group to distance itself from any incident, as well as to create a clear dilemma for Israel, which would have to decide between responding to any attack on the one hand, and maintaining a delicate balance on the other hand, as a forceful response could be perceived as intervention in the Syrian civil war. Israel has been able to avoid being dragged into the Syrian conflict for the past four years, and it has no interest in becoming party to it, or worse -- somehow indirectly assisting the radical jihadi terrorist groups fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad. This is why Israel has opted for a measured response at this time. Still, Israel must prepare for worse incidents than essentially harmless rocket fire. An agitated front that could disrupt life in the border-adjacent communities is one problematic scenario, as is a serious terrorist attack emanating from Syria. For a short period of time following Tuesday's rocket fire, it seemed the latter was the case, and defense officials breathed a sigh of relief when their concerns proved false. The relief, however, was short-lived: The understanding that Hezbollah is still plotting its retaliation means the military must maintain an almost unprecedented alert level across both the Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Syria borders, knowing this critical time will shape future reality in the sector.
