The northern sector is currently experiencing its greatest test since the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Even the most optimistic defense officials are wary of the "significant escalation potential" on the border, as well as of the potential for a tactical miscalculation, by either Israel or Hezbollah, that may result in a dangerous deterioration in the security situation in the area. Over the past few days, top government and defense officials have been making significant efforts to contain the situation. This is less about Hezbollah and Iran's immediate reaction to Sunday's reported strike in Quneitra, near the Israel-Syria border, and more about Israel's potential response to whatever may happen, and the potential chain of events that could follow. The defense establishment is pursuing some sort of real-time simulation, if you will, designed to stay ahead of possible events and give Israel sufficient time to prepare for them. These preparations are currently the work of only one party. Hezbollah, for the time being, is keeping its cards close to the vest, and may still be mulling its best course of action. Beirut and Tehran's reactions to the strike have left little room for questions -- retaliation is a foregone conclusion. Defense officials, however, are divided on whether Hezbollah will retaliate directly, via the Israel-Lebanon border; indirectly, via the Golan Heights; or on foreign soil, via terrorist attacks against Israeli and Jewish sites worldwide. Chances are Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is not navigating the situation on his own, and the decision on the nature of the Shiite terrorist group's reaction will involve the Iranians. In this respect, the killing of a Revolutionary Guard general in the strike was an unforeseen snag, which now forces Israel to recalibrate its own course of action. The familiar targeted killing-retaliation-containment paradigm practiced vis-a-vis Hezbollah will have to be set aside, as the future may hold a complex campaign involving a much more formidable enemy. The Iranian general in question was not out sightseeing, and he was undoubtedly involved in terrorism. The expectation that the intelligence gathered ahead of this operation could have accounted for every imaginable scenario is unrealistic. What's done is done. In the future, the quality of the intelligence would have to be more thoroughly scrutinized, as will the process of how such operations are authorized. Right now, however, Israel must do its best to prepare for the multiple scenarios that Hezbollah's response may follow, with everything from bolstering its intelligence gathering efforts along the borders, to bolstering security at Israeli and Jewish sites worldwide. Israel must be alert if it hopes to minimize any surprises, and most importantly, if it hopes to avoid being pulled into a vortex that could lead to another war.
