The question facing Hezbollah right now is not if, but how and when. Revenge will come, that is certain. The debate in Beirut (and Tehran) will be whether to make the response large enough to risk triggering a large-scale conflict in the north. Hezbollah would have a hard time quietly absorbing the strike on Sunday for multiple reasons. One of the biggest is the high profile nature of the strike: not car bomb or shooting from close range that leave no foot prints, but rather missiles fired from a helicopter, in broad daylight and with witnesses. Israel may not be officially confirming the attack as to not publicly humiliate Hezbollah, but it does not really matter; the accurate intelligence throughout and the pinpoint precision (no collateral damage) only add insult to injury for Hezbollah, which once again got one between the eyes. The identities of those killed will also warrant a response. Imad Mughniyeh was Hezbollah's all-star military commander, a brilliant tactician whose assassination left a deep void in the organization. His son Jihad was a far cry away from his ability and charisma, but he was the prince, the heir. Despite his limited talents, Hezbollah appointed him to command a new front developed by the group (with the Iranian Revolutionary Corps, a few members of which were also killed Sunday) in the Golan Heights region. Jihad's appointment was more for morale than operational capability, and so was his loss -- a shot straight to the gut. Hezbollah and Iran opened up the new Golan Heights front a year ago to carry out attacks, with the intention of keeping their finger prints off those activities. The attacks, the boldest of which was the March 2014 explosive detonated against Israeli paratroopers on the Syrian border, were carried out by agents on behalf of Hezbollah but who do not belong to it, as to distance Hezbollah from the crime and prevent a conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border. The group had previously denied involvement in activity on the Golan Heights. But Hezbollah has changed its stance since: after an attack on a weapons convoy in Lebanon a year ago, Hezbollah said it was returning to anti-Israel operations, and last week Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed to respond to attacks conducted not only on Lebanese soil but in Syria as well. Hezbollah will now have to pay that bill. The fact that Hezbollah's own media outlet was the first to report the identities of those killed points to the level of anger and frustration within the group and in a way paves the way for its expected response. Once the dust settles however, Hezbollah, with the majority of its fighters embroiled in the Syrian civil war, and with members also sent to advise the Iraqi military in fighting Islamic State, will have to decide how far to take its revenge: Will an attack on Har Dov suffice? Rocket fire on the Galilee? A significant terrorist attack abroad- Israel must be ready for all these potential scenarios. The natural focal point is high level readiness in the intelligence community and active defense, but increased vigilance will be required for every action taken along the border, as every soldier could be target of an immediate strike. A decade ago, Hezbollah snipers killed two soldiers who were fixing an antenna on a rooftop near the border: this kind of scenario is something that must be taken into account, as Hezbollah will likely seek to strike a high ranking officer as a revenge of equal value for the killing of Mughniyeh's son. If Hezbollah employs a violent response, with many casualties, it will undoubtedly warrant an Israeli counter-action and could lead to a dangerous escalation. Currently it seems neither side wants that -- despite suggestions made Sunday by some politicians in Israel that the strike was an "election ploy." But the next two weeks, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz's last as IDF chief of staff, will be marked by high tension in the north. This reality will also accompany incoming IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, who had previously been GOC Northern Command. In an interview with Israel Hayom published over the weekend, Brig. Gen. Itai Brun, the outgoing director of the IDF Military Intelligence research division, said that the northern front, Syria and especially Lebanon, was heating up quickly, that the eight years of quiet Israel's north has enjoyed was likely coming to an end, and that the new-old reality would replace it soon.
