Nasrallah's moment of truth

Some nine years ago Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah suffered a lapse in judgement. He figured he could get away with a kidnapping operation and that Israel would not retaliate forcefully. Instead, he triggered a war that dealt a crushing blow to his people and the Shiites in Lebanon (of course, Israel was also hurt by the war, although to a lesser extent).

Some two years later, when his right-hand man and Hezbollah's chief of operations Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated in Damascus, he let it slide. Now, in the wake of Sunday's attack, Nasrallah faces the same dilemma: Should he retaliate for the killing of his people in the Golan Heights, potentially setting off a large-scale conflagration on the Israel-Lebanon border, or should he move on and essentially give Israel a green light to strike his organization with impunity?

The fact of the matter is that Nasrallah has already decided on his preferred course of action. In 2014, he claimed responsibility for the improvised explosive devices that were placed on IDF patrol routes in the Sheba Farms area, where the borders of Israel, Lebanon and Syria meet. The first device was planted in response to an alleged Israeli attack on a Hezbollah depot in Lebanon and the second was used to avenge the death of a Hezbollah operative who died from what was believed to be an Israeli bomb.

We don't need to wait for Hezbollah's official response to know it will not let latest provocation go unanswered. The only question is the timing and the modus operandi. Hezbollah's response will be measured and cautious -- perhaps resorting to more IEDs to make it clear that Israel had crossed a line. That said, the organization would like to avoid a regional flare-up.

But Hezbollah could also opt for a more forceful retaliation due to the Mughniyeh's high status, the risk of a full fledged confrontation notwithstanding.

Of course, Hezbollah has another weapon in its arsenal. It could try to do what it did in 1992 after Israel killed its leader Abbas Musawi. Back then Hezbollah waited only a month before it sent Iranian operatives to bomb the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, an attack that left 29 people dead. Two years later, Hezbollah bombed the AMIA building, a large Jewish community center in the city.