The government's situation can best be described as if it was a patient in an intensive care unit, under constant supervision and on life support, as doctors would say. Will early elections really take place on March 2015? As of the weekend, the polls suggest that the public will go to the ballots in three months. Yisrael Beytenu is wary of joining forces with Shas and United Torah Judaism, which, for their part, do not seem too enthused about joining Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's amputated government. On Saturday night, Yisrael Beytenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman began the week-long mourning period for his mother, who passed away on Thursday. It is not inconceivable that during this period, those who seek to save the government would confer on the matter. Back in 2012, Likud ministers were told they would be voting in favor of a motion for the dissolution of the Knesset, only to get a late-night phone call telling them it would not be necessary, as Kadima Chairman Shaul Mofaz had agreed to join the government. The rest, as they say, is history. Netanyahu has every right to demand that his ministers refrain from undermining the very government they serve on. In the absence of an alternative, he has sought to call early elections, but that was prior to the events of the past two days, during which the Left came up with its "anyone but Netanyahu" slogan, and the reports suggesting former minister Gideon Sa'ar may challenge him for the chairmanship of the Likud. Sa'ar faces two trials within the Likud: The first is whether the tens of thousands of the party's registered members would essentially agree with the Left, that Netanyahu should not be allowed to vie for the premiership once again. If that proves true, Sa'ar is likely to throw his hat in the ring. The second is the question of whether the heads of the various interest groups within the Likud caucus band together against him, as they understand that such a race may position Sa'ar's interests ahead of their own in the vote for the Likud's list for the 20th Knesset. In this case, these senior party members would throw their support behind Netanyahu, although it is unclear exactly how much that would affect the party members' votes. Former Likud minister and Knesset hopeful Moshe Kahlon would probably prefer a Netanyahu-led Likud rather than Sa'ar-led one. A choice between Kahlon and Netanyahu is clear-cut, whereas a choice between Kahlon and Sa'ar is not as equivocal. Meanwhile, things on the other side of the political spectrum are not as bright as one would have you believe. Labor leader Isaac Herzog insisted over the weekend that he is going to be the next prime minister, and has said he welcomes a partnership with Hatnuah Chairwoman Tzipi Livni. Livni, for her part, claims she is "ready for it," but what does she really mean? That the battle for the leadership of the Center-Left bloc is wide open? That Herzog is not necessarily the would-be successor? The two of them may be loaded for bear, yet right now there is not a bear in sight.
