On Thursday, just before midnight, it became clear that tempers were flaring. There was hope that cooler heads would eventually prevail, that once dawn broke both sides would resume negotiations in good faith, focusing on the five conditions Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had set during his talks with Finance Minister Yair Lapid. But on Monday night it was clear that Israel was bound for early elections it does not want. Lapid, who was boxed in by Netanyahu's "take it or leave it" proposal, had to grapple with his own reservations about such a move, ultimately convincing himself, willy-nilly, that it was time to go to the polls to elect the 20th Knesset. Polls show that Netanyahu's Likud (which currently has 18 MKs) will likely gain strength; Lapid, on the other hand, is projected to win only 11 seats (down from 19). Netanyahu used a spear to hit Lapid under his fifth rib, which the Bible tells us is the most vulnerable part of the body. He used Lapid's Achilles heel -- his record at the Finance Ministry -- to strike where it hurt most. This resulted in a feud over actual substance, unlike the manufactured crises we have become used to. The disagreement was over Lapid's decision to withhold some NIS 6 billion ($1.52 billion) from the Defense Ministry. The military is reliant on these funds to relocate some of its biggest bases to the Negev. And now, with this project in limbo, the Zionist vision of settling the desert is imperiled. Dimona, Yeroham, Beersheba, Yotvata and Eilat are not like Ofra and Beit El. By holding off on the IDF's relocation to the Negev, we are undermining our own Jewish identity -- more than any so-called "Jewish state" bill. What was a pointed disagreement between Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and Lapid is now a battle of ideas. Yesh Atid is fighting the very vision articulated by Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion at the state's founding. But unlike his performance as finance minister, when it comes to other agenda items, Lapid may not be in such dire straits. You cannot expect Lapid to abandon his efforts to exempt couples from paying value-added tax on new apartments (the measure has already passed the cabinet) while asking him to support more settlement construction or vote in favor of the "Jewish state" bill. Netanyahu said Lapid must accept his five conditions or face early elections, but it appears Netanyahu has already concluded that these two horses can no longer pull together (a phrase attributed to Prime Minister Levi Eshkol, who, in 1967, said he and David Ben-Gurion would not get along in the same government). Both sides will try to maintain some form of dialogue because they want to emerge with the upper hand in the ensuing blame game. No one wants to be accused of forcing the country into another election. But it appears both are already resigned to the electoral fight that lies ahead. It is too bad that we have reached this point. It is bad for Israel's stability. This will deal a major blow to our economy and national security and hurt our standing on the world stage, just as the Palestinians launch a statehood bid at the U.N. The political divorce seems inevitable. That it, unless a major force intervenes. Perhaps President Reuven Rivlin will step into the fray.
