Thoughts on the P5+1 negotiations with Tehran

The Nov. 24 deadline came and went for an agreement between Western powers and the Islamic Republic of Iran; on ‎that date, they managed only to extend the existing interim deal for another seven months. The ayatollah ‎crowed and U.S. senators stewed. Looking beyond these responses, the current situation spurs several thoughts: ‎

• If one assumes, as I do, that the apocalyptically minded Iranian leadership will do everything it can to ‎acquire the bomb, then economic sanctions only serve to slow its course, not to stop it. Put more ‎forcefully, the debate over sanctions is peripheral and even diversionary. The arcane financial and ‎scientific minutiae of the negotiations tend to bury the only discussion that really matters -- whether or ‎not some government will use force to reverse the nuclear program.

‎• That said, should the 114th Congress pass legislation with a veto-proof majority, this would be an ‎unprecedented blow against U.S. President Barack Obama and would presumably serve as a low-water mark of his ‎presidency. But this signal event for American domestic politics is unlikely to affect the Iranian program. ‎

• Some governments (Russian, American) have the means but not the intent to destroy the Iranian ‎facilities. Others (Saudi, Canadian) have the intent but not the means. This leaves only one player that ‎sort of has the means and sort of has the intent: Israel. Given its in-between status, whether it will act is the ‎‎$64,000 question. This is what preoccupies me and, I suggest, what others too should focus on.

• Israel's conundrum appears genuine: On the one hand, it is the only state to have knocked out nuclear ‎programs (twice, in 1981 and 2007); on the other, the logistical challenge and supremely ‎high stakes make this round far more daunting. ‎

• Not for the first time, the 8 million people of Israel have an outsized international role. There's a reason it ‎has the highest per capita number of foreign correspondents: Whether it's classical music virtuosity, ‎religious passions, high-tech breakthroughs, U.N. Security Council resolutions, or warfare, the Jewish ‎state globally punches far above its weight class.

Daniel Pipes is president of the Middle East Forum.

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