In his meetings with the coalition party heads on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to warn them that unless cooler heads prevail, he will have no choice but to call for early elections -- something both Netanyahu and the party leaders wish to avoid. Early elections, however, do not necessarily spell a move that has not been thought through, but rather a loss of control over political conduct, which often takes place following circumstantial events. Early elections may also be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Netanyahu, for example, reneged on his pledge to support the new conversion bill, which represents a worthy compromise on the issue, due to concerns that the coalition's days are numbered and that he will eventually have to rely on the support of the ultra-Orthodox parties, which oppose the bill, when the time comes to form a new government. The heated political atmosphere has encouraged an air of early elections, leading to delays in the vote on a necessary bill, which -- should it pass its third Knesset reading -- may bring about early elections. Every scenario is possible. Everything is based on feedback. If early elections are, in fact, unavoidable, than Netanyahu's desire to hold the Likud's primaries at this time makes sense, as he is assured a victory. This is exactly what his rivals within the party, and especially MK Danny Danon, seek to prevent. Their opposition may only drive Netanyahu, who enjoys the support of Transportation and Road Safety Minister Yisrael Katz and benefits from the vacuum created by Interior Minister Gideon Sa'ar's departure from the Likud, further. The more boisterous Danon's objections become, the harsher the conflict within the Likud becomes. These confrontations weaken the central controls within the ruling party, and in the absence of a solution, early elections may be the best answer. Netanyahu's call on the parties making up the coalition to compromise goes against their grain and in contrast to their own predictions, and false as they may be they could bring about a new reality. Netanyahu may believe that the new conversion bill would undermine the chances of including the haredi parties in the next government, but on the other hand, Hatnuah leader Tzipi Livni, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman fear that without Netanyahu, their parties' chances of returning to the Knesset would be diminished. For now, the glue holding the coalition together is the results of recent polls placing many parties below the electoral threshold. The Likud itself subscribes to Katz's math, which suggests that to secure its position, the ruling party must win at least 27 seats in the next elections. The current political atmosphere created little motivation among the parties to compensate each other. Yesh Atid, for example, cannot be sure that any concession it makes in favor of Habayit Hayehudi will be met in kind -- not for malice, but for lack of time. Early elections may be far off, but despite all the chatter and warnings, it seems the coalition is already heading down that path.
