A political relay race

The political crises faced by Israel's governing coalition are similar to a relay race. A week ago, media commentators were talking about an unbridgeable divide between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Yair Lapid. Netanyahu threatened Lapid, and the prime minister's associates began speaking about early elections, as it appeared Lapid wanted to leave the government.

After a few days, the baton was passed and a new unsolvable crisis erupted, this one between Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and Economy and Trade Minister Naftali Bennett. The issue of the tunnels during Operation Protective Edge almost led to the establishment of an official commission of inquiry.

But before the preparations for that could be completed, the baton was passed to outgoing Interior Minister Gideon Sa'ar, with attention focused on his potential future political partnership with former Communications Minister Moshe Kahlon.

What will tomorrow bring? Who will grab the baton next? On Saturday, it returned to the hands of Netanyahu and Lapid.

The ease with which Netanyahu and Lapid reached fundamental understandings on the structure of the 2015 budget revealed how artificially inflated the crisis between the two was. In essence, the crisis stemmed from a lack of trust between Netanyahu and Lapid, not an economic disagreement. If it was so easy to agree on a 6 billion shekel ($1.6 billion) addition to the defense budget (not the NIS 11 billion requested by Ya'alon, nor the NIS 2.5 billion originally proposed by Lapid), what was the need for all the rancor and discord? An agreement was achievable from the start.

But I am not convinced that all is said and done regarding the understandings reached by Netanyahu and Lapid. Ya'alon, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz and the rest of the defense establishment are part of the equation, and, as of Saturday, the proposed defense budget was not sufficient for them. The numbers are clear -- this past year, the defense budget stood at NIS 52 billion, including an addition made during the year. Now, Ya'alon is demanding a return to the outline devised by the Brodet Committee, which allocated NIS 63 billion for this coming year's defense budget.

Netanyahu is inclined to agree with Ya'alon and has even hinted that the required defense budget is NIS 68 billion, not NIS 63 billion. If Netanyahu and Lapid agreed to only a NIS 6 billion addition (for a NIS 58 billion defense budget), then expect a major struggle to take place involving them and Ya'alon. What Lapid promised during the press conference outside his home on Saturday was far from the final word on the matter.

The dispute has entered a new stage. Ya'alon, Gantz and the defense establishment claim that it is not true that the defense budget is the largest among government ministry budgets. The defense budget includes pension payments and compensation to bereaved families and wounded soldiers. If this is the case, why are pension payments for teachers not included in the Education Ministry budget? According to the defense establishment, expenditures on intelligence, cyber warfare, preparations for the threat posed by the Islamic State and vigilance against Hezbollah necessitate an increase in the budget total allocated by the Brodet Committee. There is not a chance this will happen. But instead of playing with the public's nerves and seeking politically beneficial headlines, Netanyahu, Ya'alon and Lapid would be wise to quietly reach understandings amongst themselves.

My prediction is that the defense budget will be between NIS 58 billion and NIS 63 billion. It may be set first at NIS 58 billion, with a pledge from Netanyahu to Ya'alon that the budget will be reviewed during the year. This means the budget will be NIS 63 billion -- in two stages, not all at once. That is fine.

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