IDF preparing for political fallout

While much of the fighting segued Thursday to the political theater, the military campaign in the Gaza Strip is not over, and it may even see its share of drama before a cease fire is finally reached. This may range from efforts by Hamas to carry out a major terror attack in an attempt to mark an achievement on the ground, to more targeted assassinations of its operatives in Gaza.

For now, however, Israel is the one that has been marking achievements. The killing of top Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades operatives Mohammed Abu Shamaleh, Mohammed Barhoum and Raed al-Attar on Thursday was more than just an intelligence coup for Israel -- it hit the heart of Hamas' chain of command, and it did so right on the heels of the strike on Brigades' commander Mohammed Deif's home.

While there is no definitive proof as to Deif's fate at this time, there is a growing belief in the defense establishment that he did not survive, and Israel's success in neutralizing several high-ranking Hamas commanders in one week increases the pressure on Gaza's rulers to end the hostilities.

A cease-fire agreement can be reached in one of two ways: the first is an international initiative, led by the U.S. and the EU, which would include a U.N. Security Council resolution on a truce and the demilitarization and rehabilitation of Gaza; and the second is the resumption of the Egyptian-brokered cease-fire negotiations, which would strive for the same results.

Israel prefers the Egyptian path, but Cairo has yet to devise a way to bridge the major gaps between the parties, namely Israel's objections to Hamas' demands for an airport and a seaport, and Hamas' rejection of Israel's demand for the demilitarization of Gaza.

The next few days will prove critical to the cease-fire negotiations. While Egypt and the West are likely to increase their efforts on the matter, Israel would be unable to dismiss the demands by the south's residents for peace and security, just as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal would find it hard to ignore a similar demand by the Palestinians in Gaza.

The premise in Israel is that the cease-fire talks will resume within days, but until that happens the fighting will continue, with both sides trying to score as many achievements as they can before the final whistle.

The military will most likely focus on the aerial campaign and try to hunt down as many of Hamas' top operatives as it can, to maximize the blow dealt to Hamas' operations and morale. Hamas, meanwhile, will most likely try to carry out a major terror attack against Israel -- perhaps using a tunnel -- to exact revenge over its operatives' death and to prove that it is still operationally viable.

The internal conflict in Israel is likely to grow as well. The resident "victim" is IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, who has already been blamed by some cabinet ministers for the inadequate results of the Gaza campaign.

Gantz's suggested strategy was deliberately "lean," they argued, he exaggerated his assessment of the risks and overstated the military's achievements, all so he could come home in one piece.

These are serious allegations with serious implications, and they must be examined, but we will not know whether the blow dealt to Hamas was as crippling as the IDF claims it was until the dust settles on Operation Protective Edge.

Nevertheless, this would not be the prism through which the operation is examined, as its true test lies in the duration of peace and quiet in southern Israel.

As important as the operational aspects are, Gantz has unfortunately been caught in the crosshairs of two camps fighting a political battle: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon on one side, and Yisrael Beytenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman and Habayit Hayehudi Chairman Naftali Bennett on the other.

Gantz's actual performance is not as important, as his role was reduced to that of an extra, but if he keeps his head down now, he risks betraying the most important thing of all -- the public's faith in him and in the Israel Defense Forces. And if the political battle manages to undermine that faith, we might as well just call it quits.

Since Gantz understands what is at stake, he is likely to take one for the team, even at the expense of his dignity. Gantz is likely to detail his personal failures -- and he has had some -- before any commission of inquiry, which is more than any of the ministers criticizing him are likely to do.

The ministers' criticism will remain anonymous and will undoubtedly be leaked to the media to manipulate the results. If a commission of inquiry is ever formed to investigate the issue of leaks from cabinet meetings, it would have to address an interesting question: Is a minister a felon for leaking false information from the cabinet meeting?

Attorney-General Yehuda Weinstein is the main obstacle to such an inquiry, for reasons "meant to maintain the cabinet ministers' dignity," or, in other words, the desire to refrain from publicly embarrassing those who leaked information to the media during wartime.

Weinstein may be right, as an inquiry might reveal what little respect the ministers have for protocol, but he may be wrong, because with all due respect to the ministers, maintaining the dignity of democracy is just as important.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו