A day after the Israeli Air Force struck the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City, the question still remains: Is Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades' commander Mohammed Deif alive or dead? Since past experience has proved that Hamas operatives, including Deif himself, have been able to survive bombings of their homes and hideouts, Tuesday evening's attack was unusually massive. Eight missiles were fired at the building from different angles, to ensure it was reduced to rubble. Military experts who analyzed the bombing's results determined that there was absolutely no chance anyone could have survived. Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen arrived at the command and control center, from which the order to launch the strike was given, directly from the deadlocked cease-fire talks in Cairo. His agents told him the intelligence suggesting Deif was on the premises was cross-referenced, double-checked, and found to be credible, and so the strike was green-lighted. Military officials sounded slightly less convinced on Wednesday, following Hamas statements that Deif was not in the building. These statements, and the fact that Israel has been struggling to verify Deif's whereabouts and condition, have cast doubts on what seemed to be undisputed fact just a day earlier. Deif has been the focus of extensive intelligence gathering efforts for years, as well as a constant target for elimination. The cabinet approved his status as a legitimate target at the beginning of Operation Protective Edge, and his status was approved once again prior to Tuesday's strike. This careful move stemmed from several reasons, including the diplomatic efforts made by the U.S. and Egypt to broker a cease-fire, the projected security escalation and its subsequent military implications, and the unusual profile of the target -- a three-story residential building, where collateral damage was likely to spell multiple civilians casualties. It seems highly unlikely that Deif would have made the egregious mistake of allowing himself to become vulnerable to another assassination attempt just as another cease-fire was collapsing. Surviving four previous attempts on his life, and given that many of his colleagues have met an unfortunate end, has taught Deif to be cautious, to isolate himself even from Hamas' handful of top leaders, and to avoid media attention. Assuming he was on the premises, he might have been in a bunker right underneath the building or in a tunnel leading up to it, believing he was safe there. Despite Hamas' insistence that Deif is alive, its officials' behavior in the hours immediately after the strike was suspicious. At first Hamas reported a double-digit number of casualties, which was then dramatically reduced, and their identity was shrouded in mystery. Dief's wife and son were the only two to be publicly identified -- most likely by mistake -- by Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk, in Cairo. Hamas, meanwhile, has issued strict orders barring the release of any information about the people killed in the strike. The rocket fire at Israel following the strike in Sheikh Radwan was also unusually heavy, indicating that Hamas was responding to a dramatic event, and raising an elementary question: If Deif is alive, what is keeping Hamas from proving it to the world? Deif is more than just a talented tactician who has been able to create a highly skilled army. Mohammed Deif is a symbol. The fact that he has been able to survive multiple assassination attempts over the past 20 years has made his name synonymous with the fight against Israel. Eliminating Deif would deal a massive blow to Hamas' morale and serve as evidence of its defeat. There is no doubt that this thought occurred to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, who after 45 days of fighting, scathing political criticism and growing public pressure, would like to secure an "image of victory." If Deif somehow managed to survive, nothing dramatic will change for Hamas. He hated us before and he will most likely hate us a little more in the future. Eliminating Deif would create a power struggle between the six division heads working under him, and might undermine Hamas' military operations for a short period of time, but it is unlikely to affect it in the long run. With or without Deif, Hamas will remain a radical Islamist group preaching the destruction of Israel. Despite Hamas' threats to fire rockets at the Ben-Gurion International Airport, after nearly six weeks of Iron Dome thwarting nearly every rocket fired at central Israel, Hamas most likely understands that its chances of once again disrupting the airport's operations are slim. Given Hamas' dwindling rocket arsenal, it is also likely that the "gates of hell" they warned Israel of are more verbal than anything else. Ten days ahead of the new school year, the frustration felt by the residents of southern Israel is becoming increasingly palpable. The residents of the Gaza vicinity communities, Beersheba, Ashdod and Ashkelon are wondering -- and rightfully so -- if there is an end to the attrition is sight. Israel may have more options than Hamas, but nevertheless, its leaders seem to be the ones dictating the moves on the ground. Right now, its operatives are running amok and fighting accordingly, but eventually they will return to Cairo. Had the cease-fire held, Israel and Hamas would have been able to carve out "lean" understandings on Tuesday, focusing on the crossings and the transfer of wage funds in exchange for a lasting truce. The bigger issues -- a seaport and the opening of Rafah crossing for Hamas, and the demilitarization of Gaza and the return of soldiers' remains for Israel -- were to be discussed in one month's time, thinking that would give everyone enough time to relinquish their motivation to fight. Egypt has already resumed its pressure on both sides to renew the cease-fire talks, and unless something dramatic happens, negotiations are likely to resume in coming days.
