Israel eyes Security Council

So what can we expect tonight at midnight? Will the talks in Cairo lead to a cease-fire with a deal? Or will we be forced to make do with a cease-fire but no agreement? Perhaps the U.N. Security Council will offer an initiative as it did after the Second Lebanon War (Resolution 1701), and force an end to the campaign on Israel and Hamas-

One thing is clear: A formula that will appease everyone does not exist. This is precisely the reason for the arm-wrestling match currently taking place in Cairo, not between Israel and Hamas, but between Hamas and Egypt.

On one side of the arm-wrestling table is Egypt, with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates in its corner; on the other side is Hamas, with Qatar, Iran and, in principle, Turkey, in its corner, although Ankara has not truly been an active player in the Cairo talks.

In Jerusalem, Israeli officials hope Egypt will be able to strong-arm Hamas. Even if the talks end without an agreement, Israel can still consider itself the victor because it achieved what it wanted, which is an end to the shooting without giving anything in return. The big question is how long the quiet will last.

The U.N. Security Council is aware of the difficulties in Egypt and the games Hamas is playing. Through its conduct, Hamas has even managed to make Islamic Jihad seem like a moderate organization. A Jordanian draft is currently making the rounds in New York, which the Americans have asked to freeze. The British, too, have begun pushing a draft of their own. It cannot be discounted that if the talks in Cairo fail there will be a U.N. resolution -- with or without us.

Foreign Ministry officials in Jerusalem are busy working on an Israeli proposal, similar to the one submitted to the Security Council in 2006, when its resolution was coordinated with and agreed upon by Israel. The main advantage in such an initiative is that Israel will be a step ahead of the game instead of lagging in the international arena.

It is impossible to predict what Hamas will do next; maybe it will start shooting. We do not know what Islamic Jihad has in store either; suffice it to say, it does not like the idea of the Palestinian Authority stepping foot in Gaza from a position of strength with Egyptian backing. It is also unclear how Hamas will act with Iran and Qatar prodding it from behind.

And one final word to those fretting over the possibility of Operation Protective Edge ending without an agreement. Please recall that Operation Pillar of Defense ended with a deal that did not prevent the next round of fighting. It should always be remembered that here in the Middle East, even arrangements don't arrange much.

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