Israel and Hamas are both facing a bizarre situation: neither is enthusiastic about the possibility that hostilities might resume in full force, yet no one can guarantee that further terrorist fire, which will undoubtedly meet a harsh Israeli response, will not spiral into a dangerous escalation. This situation is a direct result of the distress that prevented Hamas from agreeing to a cease-fire in the earlier stages of Operation Protective Edge. Hamas sought to mark a notable achievement before holding its fire, one that would justify the devastation in Gaza, where 2,000 Palestinian have been killed, 10,000 have been wounded, thousands of buildings have been razed to the ground and 450,000 people have been displaced. Given its inability to exact a substantial price from Israel during the month-long fighting -- via rocket fire, terror tunnels, or the use of any of its other strategic assets -- Hamas now finds itself cornered, so as far as it is concerned, the Cairo negotiations must prove favorable. This feeling is likely to have become more poignant over the past 24 hours, when Hamas' political leaders finally came out of hiding. Unlike the leaders of the military wing, who have remained in their bunkers fearing for their lives, Hamas' political leaders have been able to see the sights and hear the sounds, and they undoubtedly know that unless they have something substantial to show the people, the Gazans' wrath will be directed back at them. Israel is aware of Hamas' distress. On Monday, Gaza Strip's rulers gave in to the Egyptian demand of "cease-fire first, talks second," and Hamas now fears that if it agreed to extend the cease-fire, the negotiation would stretch across the long period of time, until they end with no real result. This has prompted Hamas to issue a familiar threat on Thursday, saying that the lack of any real progress in the talks spelled the resumption of rocket fire. Israel countered, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon announcing that fire would be met with fire, and while at this point it means an aerial campaign rather than a ground one, which will be scaled according to the intensity of the fire emanating from Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces remains deployed near the border, if only as a deterring presence. Still, Israel would rather avoid another escalation, which would also undermine its recent declarations of victory. For this reason, Israel's delegates to the Cairo talks -- Netanyahu's envoy Isaac Molcho and head of political-military affairs at the Defense Ministry Amos Gilad -- were given considerable leeway. Israel plans to agree to the various demands regarding wages' payments, the opening of the Kerem Shalom crossing and the renewed activity in the fishing zone near Gaza. Hamas has also demanded the opening of the Rafah crossing and the right to open air and sea ports, and Israel is adamant in its demand for the complete demilitarization of Gaza. Thursday's negotiations ran late into the night, with Egypt maintaining a hard line and making it perfectly clear to Hamas that any rocket fire would be considered a slap in the face. Cairo, however, seems to understand that Hamas' frustration might drive it over the edge, and that in its desperation it might act in a way that counters it own interests, depending on how Hamas operatives on the ground interpret their political leaders' wishes. Alongside the Cairo talks, Israel plans to embark on a mission in the global arena, meant to abate the scathing criticism leveled at Israel -- mostly in Europe -- fearing it may translate into legal action against senior Israeli officials, over alleged "war crimes" during Operation Protective Edge. These efforts are likely to see the military release previously classified materials showing Hamas' extensive use of civilians as human shields, but a defense official hedged Thursday that this campaign would most likely only be partially successful, and that the legal battle ahead "will be more complex than ever."
