Playing defense isnt enough
,עודכן
A week into Operation Protective Edge, Israel is in the midst of two parallel efforts -- a military one and a diplomatic one. The former has Israel trying to maximize the blows it deals to Hamas and keep it from marking any significant achievements; and the latter has Israel increasing the efforts to formulate a cease-fire.
Until those two efforts converge, some time in the next few days, the military campaign in Gaza Strip is following a pre-set outline: The Israeli Air Force strikes known targets and Hamas keeps firing a set amount of short- and long-range rockets at Israel. To bystanders this may seem like a zero-zero tie in a soccer match. Israel has so far been spared casualties on the homefront, but it is struggling to show a significant achievement on the front line.
The daily rundown of how many rocket launchers, tunnels, and senior Hamas operatives' homes have been destroyed means little to the Israeli public, which expects a decisive result, or at the very least a clear Israeli advantage.
Those who are familiar with the details know that Israel does, in fact, have such an advantage, but in the absence of a major achievement on the ground or clear "image of victory," it is difficult to illustrate this to the public.
The protection provided by Iron Dome is outstanding, but there are not many teams -- or militaries, for that matter -- in history which have been able to arouse enthusiasm by playing defense. True, this is war and not a soccer game, but the audience, who is paying the price of admission via sirens, expects more. It expects the team to play offense.
To draw from soccer once more, as things stand now the operation is going into overtime to try to score points until a cease-fire is reached. This "money-time" is potentially dangerous from a defensive point of view, which is why -- to prevent Hamas from marking any achievements -- the IDF has bolstered deployment; but this also represents an opportunity to target Hamas assets even further, before the proverbial final whistle sounds.
A ground incursion is still a viable option, and while the risks it entails to human lives are clear, its potential achievement is double: further physical and psychological pressure on Hamas, alongside another considerable blow to its operational infrastructure.
Defense officials noted that even now, the blow that has been dealt to Hamas is greater than the public perceives, as proved by Hamas' eagerness to achieve a cease-fire before its infrastructure is compromised even further. Even if this is an accurate assessment, it is hard to sell it to the public. Israel is likely to do that over the next few days, but only time will tell if these assessments are true, in the form of how long calm will persist in the south after the current operation ends, and the level of deterrence Israel will be able to establish against Hamas.
We also have to remember that this operation has a declared objective -- to restore peace and quiet to southern Israel, while dealing Hamas a debilitating blow meant to deter it and deprive it of its operational capabilities. Still, Israel seeks to do so without crushing Hamas completely, as this may plunge the Gaza Strip into anarchy.
Israel and Hamas agree on this, at least, and both parties are interested in re-establishing the understandings reached in 2012's Operation Pillar of Defense. Hamas, for its part, is eying additional goals, such as having the Palestinian Authority transfer the funds it needs to pay wages, and having Egypt open the Rafah crossing. Israel is not a party to neither, but it has a vested interest in both, as it seeks to maintain tight control on the passages from Sinai into the Gaza Strip, and it seeks to preserve the disconnect between Gaza and the West Bank.
As of Sunday night everything was still up in the air, mainly because while there are multiple mediation and cease-fire offers on the table, none of them can mature into an actual agreement at this time. Past experience has taught us that these suggestions will soon solidify into a more viable deal, most likely brokered by Egypt, but until this happens both parties will keep trying to score points on the ground and in the public mindset.
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