In preparation for a ground operation, or perhaps in an effort to avoid the need for one, Israel decided on Saturday to up the volume of its aerial strikes in the Gaza Strip. Israel's order to residents of several neighborhoods in Gaza to leave their homes was meant not only to save lives, but also apply pressure on Hamas. The rationale is familiar from Israel's experiences in Lebanon -- civilians forced to leave their homes will apply on authorities to end the fighting so they can return to their homes. Israel hopes this is what will happen now in Gaza -- that cries from the street will penetrate under the ground to where Hamas leaders are hiding and cause them to agree to a cease-fire on terms that are favorable toward Israel. This is only one component of the pressure that Israel has applied on Hamas during the first week of Operation Protective Edge. The "map of pain" prepared by the IDF Southern Command charts the interests of Hamas and their degree of importance to the organization. The most vital interests are listed in a red column, with the moderately important interests listed in a yellow column and the less importance interests listed in a green column. Since the start of the operation, the Israel Defense Forces has focused on "red" interests -- the infrastructure Hamas uses to strengthen itself (the facilities that produce rockets and other weaponry) and the personal assets of Hamas military leaders. As of Saturday, Israel had bombed the homes of almost every Hamas and Islamic Jihad military commander from the rank of battalion chief up. Some of these commanders were on Israel's targeted killing list, but the IDF refrained from taking them out because they surrounded themselves with innocent civilians. Despite the caution the IDF has exhibited, there have been around 120 fatalities in Gaza. According to the IDF, 60 were Hamas operatives, 20 were operatives belonging to other terrorist groups and the rest were uninvolved civilians. It is evident that Hamas planned in advance for this round of fighting, especially in regard to its rocket fire. While a number of strategic surprises (for example, attacks via tunnels and the sea) have been thwarted, the rocket fire has continued in an orderly fashion. It is likely that Hamas is abiding by a set regimen of rocket launches, particularly in regard to long-range rocket fire into central Israel, so that it will preserve its ability to keep firing rockets over many more days of fighting. Since many of the rockets are stored in or near civilian buildings, the evacuation of the civilian population from certain neighborhoods in Gaza will enable the IDF to target more rocket launchers and thereby reduce the level of rocket fire. The level of success that the IDF has in targeting rocket launchers from the air will be a significant factor in the decision on whether a ground operation is necessary. As of Saturday night, the severe blow that had been dealt to Hamas and the lack of casualties on the Israeli side had delayed such a move. In this regard, the Iron Dome has dramatically changed the face of war. It not only saves lives, but also allows Israeli leaders to make decisions in relative comfort, rather than under pressure. For this reason, Israel is also refusing to be flexible on its conditions for a cease-fire. Several self-appointed mediators (Qatar, Turkey and a U.N. envoy) put out feelers over the weekend regarding a cease-fire, but none of these efforts have matured into anything serious yet. In the coming days, Egypt will also likely enter the picture, at which point the countdown to the end of the operation will begin. Until then, tension will continue in the south, as well as in the north. The IDF has intelligence that Palestinian groups in Lebanon want to launch rockets into Israel as a show of solidarity with Gaza and that Global Jihad groups in Syria and Lebanon are looking to take advantage of the opportunity to cause trouble. However, Hezbollah is not taking part in the festivities, and this is no trivial matter. Some eight years after the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah has a huge stockpile of rockets but is extremely deterred from acting. Israel hopes that this will be the same for Hamas after the current operation in Gaza ends: that Hamas might possess rockets, but the experience it went through during Operation Protective Edge will prevent it from using them for many years.
