Riding the wave

Already in December 2012, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was being told that his partnership with Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman was a mistake. These voices said Lieberman had no boundaries in political conduct and would not remain loyal to Netanyahu, but rather only use him for electoral purposes. Netanyahu might have been listening carefully, but it was too late. The Knesset election campaign was already in full swing.

Netanyahu thought Lieberman would be restrained by the criminal investigations against him. Even though he was told it was a possibility, Netanyahu did not foresee that Attorney-General Yehuda Weinstein would water down the indictment against Lieberman. After Lieberman was acquitted of even the marginal charges that remained in the indictment, he began to plan the move that culminated on Monday with Yisrael Beytenu splitting from Likud (this, despite the fact the two parties were never really united in the first place).

If Likud had run alone in the last election, it would have won 22 to 24 seats, rather than the 20 it now holds. When the Likud-Yisrael Beytenu unity agreement was announced in October 2012, Likud members were not angry that it had been brought to them as a fait accompli. The deal was a manifestation of the Talmudic idiom, "If you have seized a lot, you have not seized."

The timing of Lieberman's decision to break up with Likud was in line with his conduct in government. There is no other country in the world in which a foreign minister would attack government policy like Lieberman did this past weekend in Sderot. Instead of coming to bolster beleaguered Sderot residents (which is the duty of every cabinet minister, regardless of their positions), Lieberman came to explain why the government was wrong. This would only be permissible for opposition MKs to do, albeit sparingly during times of tension when the public's nerves are on edge.

Lieberman was and will remain a populist. Public opinion polls indicate strong support for striking Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Lieberman is clearly riding this wave. But if the military operation encounters difficulties, Lieberman will be the first to criticize how it was conducted, as if he would have done it better.

Things are changing. Likud has been freed from the grip of its agreement with Yisrael Beytenu. Like Abraham and Lot, they are going their separate ways. On Monday, the tardy divorce was announced. Not even the best glue could have held this artificial relationship together.

At this point, none of the coalition members are planning to topple the government. But there is no doubt that they are already eyeing poll numbers. They are sharpening their differences, undermining coalition discipline. In the Knesset, they call this "the dynamic": A period in which a government begins to move toward early elections that it does not want.

The next budget will likely be passed with great difficulty. It will certainly be this government's last one.

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