Despite the rocket fire in the south this weekend and the growing public criticism of the government, Israel is continuing to refrain from responding harshly in Gaza. As of Saturday night, Israel's policy remained the same: No to escalation, yes to calm. Messages of this nature were delivered to Gaza via Egypt on Saturday. Hamas' response was: We also want calm and are trying to contain the events. But there was a big gap between these placating words and the reality on the ground, apparently due to an independent track being taken by the Hamas military wing, led by Mohammed Deif. While Hamas political officials were sounding moderate tones to Israel through Egyptian mediators, Hamas military officials decided to expand the range of rocket fire and test the limits of Israel's patience. Some Israeli officials believe that the Hamas rocket fire has a simple goal: money. Hamas is unable to pay salaries, causing its military operatives to feel unleashed. Most of the rocket fire has been aimed at Israeli communities near the Gaza border, but the rockets launched at Beersheba on Saturday (the first time Beersheba has been targeted since Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012) sent a double message. The first, to Hamas political officials, was that if salaries are not paid, Gaza will sink into a whirlpool. The second, to Israel, was that the Hamas military wing has not forgotten how to hit large cities deep inside Israel, with a clear wink at Tel Aviv. Despite this provocation, Israel is still retraining itself. Israel's rationale is that a Gaza operation would only bring the parties back to where they started -- a cease-fire. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed by Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, Finance Minister Yair Lapid and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, as well as top defense establishment officials, is seeking to achieve the same result -- a cease-fire -- without either side having to pay a heavy price. But Israel is preparing for alternative scenarios as well. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz toured the south on Saturday and has already approved a number of plans of action. Further rocket attacks could lead to stronger Israeli responses, leading to an escalation. The second is the recent unrest in the Israeli Arab sector and Israel's desire to prevent a three-front conflict from breaking out -- in Gaza, the West Bank and inside Israel, itself. So far, Israel has been able to isolate each arena. IDF and Shin Bet officials believe that, barring no further incendiary events (for example, Israeli Arab casualties or price-tag attacks), the current unrest will be able to be contained, on all fronts.
There are two other reasons for Israel to act cautiously. One is the nuclear negotiations being held between world powers and Iran. An Israeli operation in Gaza would distract world powers from that issue and undermine the effort to consolidate a tough and united front against Iran.
