This weekend is shaping up to be one of the most tense in years. The southern front has reached a boiling point that could quickly turn into a wide scale conflict; Jerusalem is as volatile as ever on backdrop of Friday sermons, the first day of Ramadan and the funeral procession for 16-year-old Muhammad Abu Khdeir, who was murdered on Wednesday. Israel made serious efforts on Thursday to cool tempers. But the rocket fire from the Gaza Strip has yet to stop. One defense official spoke of "quiet being met with quiet" -- a clear signal to Hamas that Israel is not seeking an escalation. Similar messages were relayed through Egypt. But the increased bombardment led to Israel issuing a stern warning: If the guns in Gaza are not silenced immediately, then Gaza too will not know any peace. Contrast to some reports, Israel did not set a time table for Hamas, but stated that its response would be "powerful and fierce." Israel's decision to hold off from an immediate response comes out of the desire to avoid a wider escalation and clash with Hamas, and the casualties and damage it would bring, including in Gush Dan. Those against a large operation against Hamas -- at the top of which is Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon -- said during the diplomatic-security cabinet meeting that in lieu of a plan to capture the Gaza Strip or destroy Hamas, such a conflict would end right where it began: with an agreement that would restore quiet to southern Israel. Therefore Israel's logic is to arrive at the same result without the fight -- shown by the relative restraint in the past five days, and later the ultimatum issued to Gaza on Thursday. It was hard to predict how Hamas would react to Israel's demand. On the surface Hamas does not have much interest in a clash, especially a wide-scale one that would strip it of its strategic capabilities. Additionally, if Hamas does not cease all the activity in the field, it risks an Israeli response which could include reinstating a policy of targeted assassinations of its leaders. That kind of operation -- one which the Israel Defense Forces has already begun preparing for both defensively and offensively -- would surely garner wide support among the Israeli public, which still demands a response to the abduction and murder of three Israeli teens. Israel's restraint over the past few days and the ultimatum to Hamas would likely earn Israel understanding in the international sphere, at least for the first phases of the operation and as long as it avoids causing civilian casualties. Conversely, an operation in the Gaza Strip could bring the factions in the Palestinian government and street together and unite the Gaza Strip and West Bank, and even worse -- east Jerusalem. Hamas already stated on Thursday that it wants to avenge the death of Muhammad Abu Khdeir in Shuafat and could make good on its threat on Friday during the funeral proceedings. Even without Gaza's contribution, the event will be very volatile, with a high potential for violence. Casualties could spark larger riots that could reach the West Bank and ignite the Israeli Arab population as well. This forces the police, and in a certain regard the IDF, to bolster its forces, but most importantly act with caution and remain calm knowing that any incident could have strategic implications.
