Punish Hamas

With the public outraged and demanding a tough response, the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet convened on Monday night to decide how far to take the war against Hamas. The question facing ministers, as described by one of the meeting's attendees, was not if Israel would respond, but rather how strong its response would be.

There is no dispute about who was responsible for the murder of the three teens. Israel has clear and precise information that the kidnappers, Marwan Qawasmeh and Amer Abu Aisheh, are members of the Hamas military wing. So far, Israel's actions -- arrests, confiscation of funds and closing of institutions -- have been focused against Hamas in the West Bank. But now, after two weeks of intensive operations, the target bank is mostly exhausted. Israel will now likely decide to settle into an ongoing long-term pursuit of Hamas in the West Bank, arresting, confiscating and closing anything green (the Hamas color), without distinguishing between Hamas' military and political wings.

But Israel will probably not be satisfied with just this. The next step would be to increase the pressure on the close associates and relatives of the kidnappers. Israel could do this via home demolitions (which Israel has carried out in the past but backed away from after a military committee determined they were of limited efficiency) or the deportation of Hamas members, a proposal which was raised after the kidnapping, but has not yet been enacted, partly due to reservations of legal officials.

A further step would be to launch an operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. While no link between the kidnappers and Hamas leaders in Gaza has been proven, the rocket fire of recent days has given Israel an apparent justification to act in Gaza. Theoretically, there are plenty of targets in Gaza to eliminate, but there is also a significant risk that military action there could turn into an imbroglio, leading to a broader operation that might prompt rocket fire at Tel Aviv. Proponents of striking Gaza view it as the most effective way to harm Hamas. Opponents say it would only get us back to where we started -- an arrangement with Hamas that would restore quiet in the south.

In addition to steps against Hamas, the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet also had to decide on Monday about Israel's policy toward the Palestinian Authority. Should PA President Mahmoud Abbas be treated as an enemy (as Economy and Trade Minister Naftali Bennett is demanding) or a friend (as Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Finance Minister Yair Lapid are demanding)-

The answer to this question has implications not only in the West Bank, but also the international arena. For the world, the kidnapping created a clear distinction between "good" Palestinians and "bad" Palestinians. Hamas, which kidnapped and murdered the teens, is "bad," while Abbas, who strongly condemned the kidnapping, is "good." Acting against the PA could strengthen Hamas and weaken Israel. On the other hand, focusing action on Hamas would strengthen Abbas, and also, by implication, Israel.

Monday's meeting did not come as a surprise for the members of the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet. People who were privy to the secret details of the investigation of the kidnapping were not expecting a happy ending. The fact that the kidnappers had not initiated negotiations or sent a sign of life was concerning. While Israel's official working assumption had to be that the teens were alive, it took a great deal more than faith to believe the story would end well. The families, who displayed impressive fortitude, were kept in the loop. They knew the unpublished details of the investigation which formed the basis of the unofficial assessment that the teens had been killed.

The complete picture will not be clear until the kidnappers are caught. From the start, the investigation was conducted on two parallel planes -- one looking for the kidnappers, hoping this would lead to the teens and another looking for both the kidnappers and the teens simultaneously. Information analysis led the Shin Bet to believe the teens were in the wadi where their bodies were found on Monday. The kidnappers used to spend time in this area and it is thought that they rushed there after the abduction. The area was the focus of searches over the past ten days. In hindsight, a more powerful and targeted search may have led to an earlier discovery of the bodies. But that is for the investigators to look at. As of Monday night, Israel's main mission is to locate the kidnappers -- and punish Hamas.

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