It took jihadists from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (abbreviated ISIS) no more than two days to take over two of Iraq's most important cities. But what should sound the alarm isn't the takeover of Mosul or Tikrit alone, but how odiously easy it was for both cities to fall. Iraqi troops, which were supposed to have taken command after American troops left in 2011, are behaving at best like extras in a movie.
The year 2014 doesn't bode well for Iraq. It started with the fall of Fallujah and parts of the city Ramadi, situated west of Baghdad. The rebels took control of Nineveh Province (of which Mosul is the capital) in northern Iraq, and now they are expanding their territory to Kirkuk and Saladin provinces. Half a million residents have already fled their homes. Many Iraqis in these areas, mostly Sunnis, already dislike the Shiite government in Baghdad, and welcome the rebels with open arms.
The Islamists have great ambitions. Alongside their relentless struggle in Syria, they are itching to overthrow the Iraqi regime. As of today, it would be hard to predict just how far they'll get, but they have certainly made several significant strides already. ISIS controls a large swath of eastern Syria (the Deir ez-Zor Governorate), and by taking over the Iraqi Nineveh Province, the group has secured a corridor connecting Anbar Province and Mosul to the Syrian border. The Syria-Iraq border crossing under their control allows jihadists in Syria to connect up with their affiliates in Iraq, and vice versa. Sharing weapons, equipment and money between both fractured countries has become a possibility, and good logistics never hurts in battle. The organization itself aspires to establish a large Islamic state under Shariah law. It has adopted the al-Qaida doctrine: terror and religion, religion and terror.
The rebels probably won't be able to take over Iraq's Shiite-majority regions. Iran (the Sunni groups' ancient foe) will most likely provide assistance to the Shiite authorities in Baghdad -- as long as Tehran is promised greater influence in return.
Just like the various groups warring in Syria's protracted conflict, there don't seem to be any real good guys in Iraq, either.
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