The commentaries and analyses surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech at the U.N. General Assembly last Thursday have included a considerable amount of confusion. The illustration of a bomb showing the developmental stages of Iran's nuclear program, which he presented in English, received a misleading twist in Hebrew, as if Israel had altered its own policy and set new "red lines" for Tehran. We must make a bit of sense of the numbers. There are three significant stages in the uranium enrichment process leading to a nuclear weapon: 3.5 percent, 20% and 93%. Iran has progressed methodically, cautiously. It has enriched close to seven tons of uranium to levels of 3.5%, and 190 kilograms (419 pounds) to approximately 20% (even though it has converted 100 of these kilograms to make fuel rods). To produce a nuclear warhead, 250 kilograms (551 pounds) of uranium enriched to a level of 20% are required, of which 25 kilograms are distilled to a higher level of 93% to achieve "military grade" enrichment a sterile term for an atomic bomb. The Israeli argument, on which Netanyahu focused in his speech, is that Iran has progressed 70% of the way toward a bomb by enriching all of its uranium to a level of 3.5 percent. Once Iran finishes enriching the uranium it has to a level of 20%, it will signal 90% of the way toward the completion of a nuclear weapon. As far as Israel is concerned, the red line is several months away (next spring or summer, give or take), which is how long it will take Iran to compile the kilograms it still needs to enrich to a level of 20 percent. According to the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the pace of Iranian uranium enrichment stands at 15 kilograms per month. In this regard Netanyahu is not alone. The countries conducting negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program, the P5+1, are demanding that Iran cease enrichment to a level of 20% before it acquires enough to make a bomb, as well as transfer all uranium it has already enriched to 20% out of the country to ensure that the ayatollahs can't use it in the future. On the matter of placing a red line on uranium enrichment to 93% which is a policy apparently attributed to Netanyahu no one is even discussing that, not in Israel and not in the international community. Such a move not only contradicts Israel's and the international community's declared policy, it represents an acceptance of a nuclear armed Iran. Even those who most adamantly object to an Israeli military strike on Iran at the present time (either those in uniform or not), would not agree to such a position, which would symbolize a weak Israeli stance and which isn't the case anyway, as stated. The confusion surrounding the numbers deflected the debate away from several key points in Netanyahu's speech: A clear Israeli red line that forbids Iran from making 250 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20%, while simultaneously acknowledging, as was implied in the speech, that there is more time for sanctions and international pressure to have an effect. Even the conciliatory tone with the Americans (which Netanyahu continued over the telephone with U.S. President Barack Obama), was meant to bring Jerusalem and Washington closer together, at least for now. If Iran does not abandon the path it is on, the dilemma of whether to attack will resurface toward winter's end, when Israel and the U.S. will need to make a decision before Iran enriches its uranium to 93% and completes 90% of the path to a nuclear bomb.
