The heads of Israel's intelligence community spent this past weekend in Jerusalem. Ahead of Yom Kippur, the day that symbolizes Israel's greatest intelligence failure, the senior military intelligence command, from the rank of colonel up, gathered at a hotel in the capital with their significant others for a weekend of "team building." The terrorist attack at Mount Harif naturally diverted the intelligence officers' attention to the southern border. The research officers spent many hours on Friday trying to understand where the terrorists came from, what their objective was and who had sent them. On Saturday night most of these questions remained unanswered. Despite holding the bodies of three dead terrorists and their stockpile of ammunition, the investigation into the attack still holds more question marks than exclamation marks. The investigation, conducted by GOC Southern Command Maj. Gen. Tal Russo, found that the entire incident lasted all of 15 minutes, from the moment the terrorists opened fire on the IDF troops until the last terrorist was killed. The assessment of the performance of the soldiers from the artillery corps and the Caracal Battalion was certainly positive overall (effectively ending the argument whether women can be good combat soldiers the answer is yes), even if the investigation does raise some tactical deficiencies about their response. Most of the deficiencies stem from already existing weak points, such as the still unfinished fence in the area (which is the reason for the large number of construction workers and security personnel in the area), as well as illegal immigrants trying to infiltrate into Israel. The Southern Command is working to solve the humanitarian issues complicating the IDF's operational routine along the border; but even completing the fence in a few months time won't prevent the thousands of would-be infiltrators from amassing at the border. The IDF will find itself stuck between the humane willingness to offer help and the clear and present danger doing so poses to the soldiers. However, even tactical solutions won't solve the larger, strategic problem. The Egyptians have certainly done much more over the past few weeks in Sinai, but their efforts still only amount to a speck of sand in the desert of terrorist activity. Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi is already talking about the need to alter the defense agreement between Israel and his country to "return governance" to Sinai. Israel will need to make difficult decisions: whether to agree to change the military appendix to the peace accord, by how much, and how many Egyptian forces and weapons to allow into Sinai. At the same time, the same question will also need to be answered in Israel, but from the opposite direction: whether to authorize IDF action, and to what extent, on the Sinai side of the border. For the time being this option isn't on the table, but considering the threats, the number of alerts and the volatile potential there, this can certainly change (at least at the declarative stage, to stoke the Egyptians to take more action). If it doesn't change we will see more attacks like Friday's, along with more rocket attacks on Eilat and Negev communities. Simultaneously, Israel must intensify its intelligence "spotlight" over Sinai. Thirty years of peace offered us quiet down south, but also atrophied our intelligence gathering capabilities in that sector. The fall of the Mubarak regime signaled a change of direction, but the military intelligence officers who gathered in Jerusalem know there is still a long road ahead. Considering the events of the past two years, it is reasonable to assume that none of the officers would be willing to predict what the situation along the southern border will be a year from now, not to mention on other fronts as well.
