A predetermined script

It's hard to say that the second Egyptian revolution in the span of just a year and a half, on Sunday, was really surprising. As if they are following a predetermined script, the Muslim Brotherhood, through their representative President Mohammed Morsi, dismissed the military and put an end to the previously two-headed Egyptian government — a regime made up of both the Brotherhood and the Supreme Military Council. Morsi feels so certain of himself that he even abolished the military council's constitutional amendment that granted it most of the power in the country. This was all to be expected. But it's scary how fast it happened.

So what about the peace process with Israel? First it lost former President Hosni Mubarak; now the Supreme Military Council. The only thing left for the utterly important and strategic peace process to rely on is the Muslim Brotherhood. This does not bode well.

Everything was transparent: At first, the two great powers in Egypt, the military and the Brotherhood, formed a tight cooperative effort, despite their historical disgust for each other, to oust the liberal youth, the heroes of Tahrir Square. It was clearly an unnatural coalition. It was also clear that following that clash, there would be another heavier battle between the two great powers to finally set who would be the man of the house. The attack last week in Sinai gave the Muslim Brotherhood an opportunity not only to rid Sinai of terror, but also to "rid" strategic Cairo focal points of the army. This move included removing the 76-year old Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who has been fixed like a pyramid in the Defense Ministry since 1991. It was also clear that when the clash between these two titans finally arrived, the Muslim Brotherhood would have the upper hand: They have the streets, Washington (democracy) and, in particular, the credibility granted them by winning the parliamentary and presidential elections. Morsi looked right, looked left, and saw that it was good.

I visited Egypt in 2011 more than once. Brotherhood control in the neighborhoods spread to all the cities. It is unclear if they know how to run a country, but when the president of the United States gives you backing and citizens are dropping your ballots into the ballot boxes — you have no reason to run a country with generals. It isn't exactly democracy, but Morsi catches on quickly.

We have heard much about Turkey since the start of the Arab Spring; of course, the intention is to show that democracy is possible on Muslim soil. But how true is the comparison today, when an Islamic party, like that in Turkey, knows how to castrate the army. In the case of Ankara, the army was a guarantor of democracy and of a good connection with Israel. In the case of Egypt, it is hard to say if the army is a guarantor of democracy, but at least when it is sovereign, it protects the peace.

Morsi's step is more than dramatic: He removed Tantawi to put an end to the twin government. But Morsi went even further: He also dismissed Egyptian army chief General Sami Enan, whom many in Egypt saw as the right man to succeed Mubarak. If we add the removal of intelligence chief Murad Muwafi, we can see to what extent Israel continues to lose old friends in Egypt.

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