Turning point for Syria

It has been 17 months since the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime began in the Syrian city of Daraa. Since March 15, 2011, we have witnessed many events: a wave of officer defections, massacres and battles across Syria, including in Damascus.

But the bombing in Damascus this week was definitely a high point, and possibly even a turning point. Just as when the Viet Cong infiltrated the U.S. embassy in Saigon in 1968, this did not immediately end the Vietnam War, but it did serve as a dramatic turning point that suggested that the U.S. was going to lose.

In his darkest nightmares, Assad never dreamed that his divided and disorganized opponents would be able to carry out an attack against the "holy of holies" of his defense establishment – the national defense headquarters in Damascus – and kill Defense Minister Daoud Rajiha and Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat. Shawkat is also none other than Assad's brother-in-law, and the man responsible for preserving the Assad regime after Assad's father, Hafez al-Assad, died in 2000.

This attack dealt a painful blow to the regime's morale. On the other hand, the Free Syrian Army got the biggest morale boost of the last 17 months. During the fourth consecutive day of bloody battles in Damascus on Wednesday, some 60 Free Syrian Army members were killed. But it is very possible that there has been a dynamic shift, even militarily, in this uprising. The rebels didn't think twice before attacking Assad's guards at the presidential palace. The opposition began to believe that it could topple Assad's rule, despite the inaction of the U.N. and the world.

The U.S. and Europe put off a U.N. Security Council vote on a new Syria resolution, due to the veto threat wielded by Russia and China. The vote was rescheduled for today. For the American president, this is pretty embarrassing – Ronald Reagan will be remembered as the American president who ended the Cold War, while Barack Obama may be remembered as the American president who managed to revive the Cold War.

The clash between Washington and Moscow over the Syrian uprising looks like a page out of the Cold War history books. Moscow determines its foreign relations based on balance of commerce: Russian exports to Syria amounted to $4 billion in 2011. It is no wonder that Russian President Vladimir Putin is protecting his financial interests. The fact that this annoys Washington is just a bonus.

Russia knows that, despite everything, it is not the Soviet Union any longer. But it has the ability, in certain respects, to take on the U.S. as the Soviet Union did. The Syrian issue is one of them. Putin's Moscow has decided not to hand out any gifts to the Americans. Furthermore, Syria has more strategic significance for Russia than Egypt or Libya. Around the halls of the U.N. headquarters in New York on Wednesday, members of the Russian delegation were talking about al-Qaida operatives joining up with the Syrian rebels. How ironic that it is now Moscow, and not Washington, that is warning against Islamic terror.

On Thursday, Assad woke up to a new reality. He understands that he won't be like his father, who was president for life, and that if he doesn't escape in time, he may be joining his father much sooner than he had planned.

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