No democracy here

Something positive happened on Saturday in Libya: Libyan citizens voted in the first free elections since the end of the downfall of the late Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi. For a country almost completely lacking in institutional infrastructure, the elections even went off fairly peacefully. We are talking about Libya, however, so there were a few disturbances of the peace, violent incidents and even deaths. About 100 of the 1,500 voting stations failed to open, but that was to be expected in a country awash with weapons no less than oil. Now the big question is what will the outcome of the elections be. The Salafists were very active in ousting Gadhafi, but they aren't likely to convert their "religion" into democracy.

Libyan citizens voted on Saturday for the first time in about 60 years. They voted for a temporary assembly which will then choose a cabinet and a prime minister. Libyans never really had the privilege of voting, even before Gadhafi's rule, under King Mohammad Idris al-Sanousi, so this was their first voting experience.

The Libyan reality is more complex than that of the other countries in the Arab world that experienced the "meteoric" changes of 2011. In Tunisia and Egypt, citizens voted too soon after the revolutions, which led to wins by organized Islamist parties instead of the liberal parties of the revolution youth. But those are countries with some institutional infrastructure. Libyan citizens have absolutely no concept of a democratic transition.

Many questions remain about the future of Libya's oil reserves. Since Gadhafi's lynching, anything is possible in Libya. Al-Qaida has taken over parts of the country, the state might be dismantled, a new dictatorship put in place, or democracy may even emerge, though nobody talks about that anymore because the chances seem slim. Of all the countries that experienced a "spring" or "winter" in 2011, Libya is in the worst state, despite the fact that its oil could ensure economic ease for any new regime.

One example happened in the Cyrenaica region of eastern Libya a few months ago: About 300 people declared administrative autonomy in an oil-rich area. It was the first step towards the country falling apart. In Libya this is nothing new; there has been an ongoing, unyielding struggle between the three major areas Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan. If any one area were to break off from the others, it wouldn't be surprising at all.

The conflict in Libya is an ethnic and tribal struggle. If we add to that the al-Qaida factor, the mass of arms flowing freely among the citizens following last year's civil war and the role of the Salafis in overthrowing Gadhafi, we discover that the only positive thing about Saturday's election is that citizens actually went out to vote.

Just like in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco and Kuwait, the Muslim Brotherhood will have something to say about the new political establishment in Libya. But there is one thing the Islamists can't do in Libya: establish Shariah law in the country. But that is only because the transitional government, led by Mustafa Abdel Jalil, has already implemented Shariah law. Did someone say democracy-

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