The two Grad rockets fired from Sinai into southern Israel over the weekend delivered both good news and bad news. The bad news is that summer may have begun, but dark storm clouds are gathering in the south. The good news is that despite everything, the channels of communications between Jerusalem and Cairo are functioning normally. Israel was semi-surprised by the rocket attack from Sinai over the weekend. There had been recent alerts of possible rocket fire, specifically targeting Eilat. Additional intelligence suggested that something was brewing in Sinai, though it did not specifically refer to rockets. When the first rocket exploded near Eilat, its origin was clear to most - but just to make sure, the IDF investigated the possibility that it was fired from Jordan. Officials from Israel contacted their Jordanian counterparts, the Jordanians checked and reported back: no such thing. The information was relayed to the Egyptians. Publicly the Egyptians denied all claims the rocket was fired from its territory, but in private they know exactly what's going on. Sinai is totally unruly, swarming with terrorist cells, and hovering on the brink of total chaos. The amount of weapons in Sinai is obscene, including advanced rockets, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. The flow of arms comes from Iran and Libya and is no longer only serving terror organizations in the Gaza Strip, but also their offshoots in Sinai which at times operate against Israel, at times against the Egyptian government, and most of the time against both simultaneously. Those are the motives behind the bombardment over the weekend. One theory is that Hamas fired the rockets as a "favor" to another organization; another theory is that a different organization altogether was behind the attack. The motive for the launch is undisputed however: to force Israel into a retaliation, to escalate tensions along the border and embarrass the ruling Egyptian military, all to strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood's hand in the ongoing presidential election. Seeing as its objective of the attack was so transparent, Israel decided to maintain ambiguity regarding the Grad rocket attack. No responses, no accusations, no information released. The explosion of the second rocket did not even elicit an official report. Israel wants to stay out of the Egyptian elections and prefers to discuss these issues behind closed doors in a discrete manner, with people who share the fear of the rising radicalism and Islamization of our southern neighbor. Pessimistic evaluations of the situation along the border have been multiplying and, but despite the tumultuous nature of the passing year, calm along the border has been vigilantly protected by both sides. Thus, somewhat paradoxically, the Egyptians also support Israel's ongoing construction of a security fence along the border. The fence will stop infiltrators and terrorists, but it won't stop rockets. The influx of Al-Qaida agents - forced to retire in Iraq after the American withdrawal and now looking for action elsewhere - is a serious cause for concern for both Cairo and Jerusalem. But Cairo has a plethora of other issues diverting its time and attention from neutralizing the danger in Sinai. We ourselves have been focusing on the north, and the flow of Al-Qaida retirees joining the uprising against the Syrian regime. Add to that the uncertainty over Assad's chemical weapons, Hezbollah long-range rockets, as well as a shaky shared northern border, and Sinai starts to look like a playground in comparison.
