Obama's X Files

After the first round of presidential elections in Egypt, the choice is now between an Islamist candidate (Mohamed Morsi) or a representative of the old regime (Ahmed Shafiq). Reports coming out of Syria describe yet another shocking massacre, this time in Houla, while Tehran is now shamelessly admitting to helping the butcher from Damascus. Iran is feeling encouraged following nuclear talks with the West in Baghdad — so much so that they are building another nuclear facility near Bushehr. And speaking of Iran: International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors found uranium enriched to 27 percent there. It could be an accident, they tell us, but for your information: If we ever wake up one day and Iran is enriching uranium to 90% it won't be by accident.

I do not envy U.S. President Barack Obama. For him, Egypt, Syria and Iran are not countries, they are files. Judging from the U.S.'s handling of these cases, these are not just any files, they are X Files. The average American voter is not impressed, and Obama is under pressure. Egypt and Iran appear to be lost causes that can't be turned around come elections in November. Perhaps it is Damascus, of all places, that will usher Obama's salvation?

Let us begin with Egypt. Obama was so excited by the liberty and freedom that emanated from Tahrir Square that he forgot that deposed president Hosni Mubarak was traditionally one of American's strongest allies. If Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, wins the presidential election in June, the Egyptian army will be the last line of defense against the brotherhood's religious regime. If Shafiq, the last Mubarak-era prime minister, wins the election, we are ensured chaos and frustration in the nation of 80 million people. It will be interesting to see how the White House sells its Egypt File to the American voters come November.

In Iran, the farce continues. The Iranians have Washington's number and have figured out the prevailing attitude in D.C. The ayatollahs' regime has until November to move forward on its nuclear program, and even defy the P5+1. Not only are the nuclear talks with the West not deterring the Iranians, they are giving them the sense that they are a world superpower. Tehran's nuclear program will ensure Iran's international status. In fact, Tehran is so self-assured that the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's elite Quds Force has confessed that Iran is actively assisting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad put down the revolt against his regime. That is how little Iran fears the U.S. It will be interesting to see how the White House sells the Iran File to the American voters come November.

So what does Obama have? Damascus. Here is the U.S. administration's contingency plan: With the help of the Russians, the Americans will be able to replace the Syrian president (like in Yemen) but not the Syrian regime. Obama is hoping for a compromise: Moscow retains its interests in the Middle East and Washington can boast having deposed a tyrant in Damascus.

Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet soon. The Russian president holds a grudge against the American administration for casting doubt on the integrity of the elections that granted him the presidency. It will be interesting to see what else Putin will get from the Americans in exchange for one Middle East victory for Obama.

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