The least of all evils

Fifty million eligible Egyptian voters are heading to the polls on Wednesday and Thursday to choose their president. The options are an Islamist president (Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh or Mohamed Morsi), or a Mubarak-era president (Amr Moussa or Ahmed Shafiq). The Tahrir youth — the harbingers of spring, remember? — are once again left out of the game, just like in the parliamentary elections.

Aboul Fotouh (60), an Islamist who was expelled from the Muslim Brotherhood movement but remained devout, is considered the frontrunner. He has managed to gain the support of the observant, the liberals, the supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and even the radical Salafis.

His promise to re-evaluate the peace treaty with Israel probably contributed to his popularity in the new Egypt. The Egyptian parliament, currently dominated by a more than two-thirds majority of Islamists, will welcome him with open arms. After more than 60 years of dictatorship, Egypt can now progress to the next stage — religious tyranny. It will not be an officers coup that will bring Aboul Fotouh to power, but rather a revolution staged by young liberals. Former Presidents Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar Sadat must be turning over in their graves. Deposed President Hosni Mubarak is currently too weak to move.

In Egypt today, there is a different scenario than the one presented by well-known Egyptian author Khaled al Khamissi, the author of the best-seller "Taxi." His bet is on former Foreign Minister and Arab League Secretary-General Moussa (76). His theory is that the Supreme Military Council and Washington have decided that the next president should not come from either the military camp or the Islamist camp. The Muslim Brotherhood, already having dominated the parliament since 2011, will agree to wait. The two Islamist candidates, Mohamed Morsi (60), the official representative of the Muslim Brotherhood in the elections, and Aboul Fotouh will neutralize each other, providing the religious factions with an excuse for their loss. An Egypt headed by a well known and liberal president would be more likely to be granted foreign aid. It does not matter who wins the election, our friend Khamissi is convinced that Egypt's turmoil will continue past the elections. The aim is not for the best possible scenario, but for the least of all evils.

Omar Suleiman, former intelligence chief and Mubarak deputy who was disqualified from running for the presidency, shares this pessimistic outlook. He predicts a military coup should an Islamist move into the presidential palace on July 1. But by then, surely that same Islamist president will have established a Revolutionary Guard-style army to protect himself.

It is no wonder, then, that our friend Khamissi is worried. In any case, Egypt is going to get hot. Khamissi cannot be certain that in Egypt's new reality he will even be allowed to continue writing books. Perhaps his own book will inspire him and, like many writers in Iran, he will become a taxi driver.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו