Missing Mubarak

One need not be a prophet to have foreseen all the events in Egypt since the Tahrir Square uprising, even if there were those, in Israel too, who naively believed in the dream of democracy and a new age in the Middle East. The prophecy of democracy is fulfilling itself in many places throughout the world. But in the Middle East? In the meantime, not yet.

And still, it is amazing to see how quickly Jerusalem's pessimistic forecasts are becoming reality: How quickly the Muslim Brotherhood dominated the Egyptian parliament; how quickly they gained control over the country's constitution committee; how quickly they presented a candidate for presidency. It is also incredible how quickly the Israeli embassy and its diplomats became a target of mass violence and aggression, and how quickly Israel-bashing became a unifying factor among Egyptian demonstrators. How quickly the brotherhood and the ruling military formed an unnatural alliance, and how quickly it fell apart.

And there is more: How quickly the pipeline transferring natural gas from Egypt to Israel became a target of terror bombings; how quickly Israel's southern border became a site of terror attacks; how quickly the Egyptians decided to terminate their commitment to supply natural gas to Israel – the latest explosion to hit the gas pipeline was not caused by terrorists' bombs, it was caused by this unilateral decision.

There are still those who maintain that the termination of the gas deal was a purely commercial decision. That is an optimistic outlook – we are still waiting for the optimistic results of the revolution, while the pessimistic projections are already a reality. Our Foreign Ministry does not always get the credit it is due, but in this case it certainly does deserve accolades for having read the map accurately. The finance minister was also accurate with his predictions. At this rate, our southern neighbor may become an enemy state sooner than expected. I hope that I am wrong, but I also hoped that the predictions that came true were wrong.

Israel signed the gas deal with the Egyptian government in 2005, as part of the peace agreement between the two countries. EMG, the joint holding company, purchases the gas from Egypt and sells it to clients in Israel. Twenty-one percent of the company's shares are owned by Israeli businessman Yossi Maiman, a man who earnestly and courageously believes in the peace treaty.

Ever since the ouster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the Sinai Peninsula has become a no-man's-land. The gas pipeline that runs through the peninsula has been bombed 14 times by Bedouin who began charging protection money, and bombed by terrorists too. The pipeline has been repaired and the gas flow has been renewed, but with all due respect to Sinai's Bedouin, it was the Egyptian government that should have protected the pipeline, but that dealt it its final blow.

In Egypt, even during the Mubarak era, there were critics who claimed that the gas deal economically favored Israel in a lopsided way. There is no doubt that the change in Egypt, and consequent shift in its attitude toward Israel, has facilitated the decision to terminate the deal – a decision that could have extensive ramifications. Such a decision would not have been possible during the Mubarak era.

The gas deal with Israel has become one of the main issues with which to bash the old regime: Cairo is carrying out a broad investigation into the deal; Mubarak's two sons as well as his high-ranking officials are being investigated in a huge corruption probe surrounding the deal; the people, many of whom are hungry and poor, read in the papers every day how Israel is responsible for the loss of millions of dollars in revenue, which have been 'stolen' from the Egyptians.

There you have it: a simple formula to unify the people and increase their animosity toward the former regime while fostering hostility toward Israel. And almost simultaneously, the Egyptian parliament is urging the country's mufti to resign after having visited Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem – as though by visiting it, he legitimized the "Zionist occupation."

How quickly this is all happening. How quickly do we find ourselves missing Mubarak. Egypt will no longer supply our natural gas, but it will continue, sadly, to supply other volatile material.

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