The peace plan devised by United Nations and Arab League representative Kofi Annan, adopted unanimously by the U.N. Security Council on March 21, 2012, appeared to be evaporating mere hours before a cease-fire was set to go into effect. The Syrian regime and the divided opposition were far more occupied with blaming each other for the failed peace initiative than with extending olive branches. The Annan initiative, today, looks like an insult added to an injury. Assad's regime is supposed to withdraw its forces from cities that house the rebels Tuesday. In practice, however, Assad's forces only stepped up the violence on Monday when the Syrian forces fired across the country's borders for the first time. Two Syrian refugees were killed on Turkish soil and a Lebanese cameraman was killed in Lebanon. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to retaliate. Forty-eight hours before the scheduled cease-fire, there were 50,000 Syrian refugees on the Turkish side of the border, two Syrian bodies and zero olive branches. Annan's six-point plan was carefully formulated in such a way that it would be acceptable to both Assad and the Syrian opposition, as well as to Russia and China on one side and the U.S., Britain and France on the other. But closer examination of the plan reveals its many distortions. In it, Annan calls on all sides to cease fire, thus putting them all in the same category. Does anyone really believe that Assad's forces and the rebels are equally responsible for the 10,000 deaths in Syria over the last year? The rebels were quick to adopt the plan because it provided them recognition by the regime as a legitimate side in the conflict and not just some band of Islamist terrorists. But two weeks after adopting the plan, the sides are beginning to get a clearer picture and all they see now are the proposal's many holes. At first, everyone was excited about Annan's magic. The Arab League, which suspended Syria's membership, was happy that Annan didn't demand the removal of Bashar al-Assad an Arab leader. The 21 other members of the Arab League know very well that their leaders are not immune to ouster attempts in the future. Russia and China, for their part, saw the plan as an opportunity to preserve their ally's power. Speaking of Russia and China, both countries have blocked two U.N. Security Council resolutions against Syria so far. For them, adopting Annan's initiative is as far as they are willing to go. Russia refuses to relinquish the strategic advantage the Syrian port of Latakia offers, while China is only seeking a stable world in which it can continue to grow commercially and preserve the flow of oil. Assad's regime, encouraged by support from its allies and the West's stammering, chose not to stop fighting but to wear the rebels down, aiming to prove to the world that the uprising was just an episode with limited time and manpower. The Syrian regime will stoop as low as it can go to achieve its objective. The Syrian opposition should hope that Turkey will follow through with one of the threats it made on Monday that it would join Qatar and Saudi Arabia in calling for arming the rebels. It will not ensure Assad's ouster (external intervention is required for that) but it could make Assad wish he had gone for the Annan initiative.
