Ukrainians are going to elect a president in less than two months, but the fate of the largest European country depends on who controls its eastern reaches. Russia, which unilaterally annexed Crimea, has all but threatened to take over mineral-rich eastern Ukraine. But the roughly 11 million Ukrainians in this region -- which make up about a quarter of the general Ukrainian population -- are not as pro-Russian as the Crimeans, and Russia is well aware of that. That is why it is banking on destabilizing eastern Ukraine, hoping this would make for a smoother takeover bid. The lack of stability would also present another boon for the Kremlin: the elections that were supposed to restore law and order to the streets of Ukraine will have to be postponed. How can a country hold elections in the midst of a civil war, right- Russian President Vladimir Putin has been micromanaging the efforts versus Ukraine. He is fighting the battle of a lifetime. He believes the path toward restoring Russia's superpower status runs through Ukraine. If he were to successfully dominate it, he would probably feel an urge to replicate that success in other places. Crimea was the first stop; the lack of resistance there whetted his appetite. The West lacks a real leader. Other than ratcheting up economic sanctions and revoking the visas of some Russian officials, there is not much it can do. Oleksandr V. Turchinov, Ukraine's interim president, announced a multi-phased "anti-terrorist operation" in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday. Sources in Kiev stressed the operation would be conducted responsibly. Ukrainian officials know that Russia would like to see many casualties; it hopes blood flows in the streets. That is why Moscow said 11 people were killed after Ukrainian forces took over an airbase in Donetsk. The provisional government in Ukraine is facing a catch-22. As The Telegraph's David Blair put it: "If they respond and people get killed, Putin would have his pretext for invasion; if they do not respond and activists stay in control of government buildings, then the eastern regions will begin to slip out of Kievs control." The recent developments in Ukraine could become an international crisis. In fact, this is the first time since the end of the Cold War that a European country has had some of its territory taken over by one of its neighbors. The West has its own dilemma: on the one hand it wants to punish Russia and deter it. On the other hand, it wants to maintain a good rapport with Moscow because the latter is instrumental when it comes to other global issues like Syria and Iran. How can it achieve both ends? That is unclear, but for the time being it seems that both sides on working on a formula that would have Ukraine officially relinquish sovereignty over Crimea in exchange for Russia dropping its territorial claims on the Ukraine. Considering Putin's current posture toward President Barack Obama and former's massive strength, there is zero chance of such a deal materializing.
