Until we meet again
Decision makers in Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip and Cairo all shared the same insight late last night: If the means for a truce are not created soon, things could get out of control and lead to an escalation none of the sides really wants.
What has for now prevented a deal being reached is Islamic Jihads bullheaded approach, an attempt to gain something concrete from this current skirmish. As of Monday night, Islamic Jihad counted more than 20 of its members killed, among them prominent members of their rocket-launching apparatus, and all this without exacting a similar toll on Israel. Islamic Jihads captains, with open support from Tehran and Damascus, were not satisfied with disrupting the lives of more than 1 million Israelis: They wanted to see bodies, and fired dozens of rockets toward southern Israeli cities to achieve it.
The Iron Domes top-notch performance, the quick and deadly "closing of the circle" by the Israel Defense Forces and Israel Security Agency intelligence, and the corresponding Israel Air Force tactical strikes in real time on rocket-launching squads have thwarted Islamic Jihads effort. But all good things come to an end, and civilians in the Gaza Strip or Israel may die in large numbers, resulting in further escalation. Hamas, which has refrained from participating in the rocket fire despite harsh criticism from within the Gaza Strip, could be unwillingly dragged into the conflict and force Israel to act accordingly, which would result in deeper strikes in the Gaza Strip, and correspondingly, the Israeli home front.
The two players that could prevent an escalation now are Egypt and the international community. The international community, however, is currently preoccupied with Syria. As long as the Gaza issue doesn't get out of hand, there is no reason to get involved, and Syria remains the main story. This leaves Egypt, which on Monday night made tremendous efforts to forge a truce between the warring sides.
One could see inklings of optimism in Israel Monday night over the chance of succeeding, and steps were taken to help the truce come to fruition: New directives were given to operate with restraint and only to prevent rocket fire into Israel, not to escalate things. On Tuesday we will find out if Hamas has succeeded in overcoming Islamic Jihads ire, forcing it to join and abide by the truce. If so, it will take a few more hours after the truce is decided upon to blow the final whistle, a dangerous time period in which attempts to exact a price on Israel will continue.
And if there is no truce? The chances for that seem pretty slim, but the IDF has decided to make preliminary preparations to move the Golani infantry brigade to the Gaza Strip, not that anyone in Israel is gung-ho for a ground operation. The hope is that the threat of such a troop movement will be enough to press the organizations in the Gaza Strip to agree to a truce.
Assuming a truce is achieved, it is doubtful it will hold for even 40 days. Israel will not respond to Hamas demand that it stop its measures to thwart terrorists and planned attacks, something that will ensure another fresh round of fighting soon. Taking into account that each round of fighting is more violent than the last, it would be wise to listen to the warning sirens in the Gush Dan area on Wednesday. While these may only be a test, it was hard to find someone in uniform on Monday who could promise that this would it would also be the case the next time the sirens go off.
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