Israel and Hamas have a common interest

Israel and Hamas independently reached the same conclusion on Sunday: The current clash has played itself out. Unless something changes dramatically, Egypt will soon broker renewed understandings between the two sides and restore calm to both sides of the Gaza security fence.

Israel seeks a cease-fire precisely because of its successes thus far. On the offensive, the IDF has succeeded in eliminating more than 10 rocket launching squads and their rocket launchers, and on the defensive, Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system has intercepted nearly 90 percent of the rockets fired at Israeli cities from Gaza, These are impressive figures, and the longer the conflict drags on, the harder they will be to maintain. At any moment, a lethal Grad missile could penetrate Israel’s active defense shield (or a failed offensive could take the lives of innocent civilians in Gaza) and drag Israel into an unwanted war.

The U.S. and Europe are also pushing for calm, and Israel, which needs their support on much bigger issues, would win points if it makes an effort to fulfill their wishes.

Hamas also wants a cease-fire, but for the exact opposite reason: lack of achievements. The organization is currently sitting on the fence and for all intents and purposes holding their fire. Among Hamas’ ranks there is growing dissent over the loss of the fighting spirit and the deviation from the path of the Jihad. Should the clash with Israel continue, the pressure on Hamas to take action will grow and therefore it is best to restore calm now – before someone slips and sparks further escalation, which no one in Gaza wants either.

Now it is up to Egypt, the mediator, to take this common desire and translate it into a cease-fire agreement. Amos Gilad, Israel’s negotiator, is seeking a total cessation of rocket fire into Israel, be it deep toward Israeli cities or adjacent to the Gaza border. Israel has made it clear that it will not tolerate an incessant hail of rockets and mortar shells into the Israeli communities in the western Negev.

Hamas is going to have to enforce its authority on the smaller Gaza organizations and prevent them from launching renegade rockets, but in the meantime, the smaller groups are launching attacks in retaliation for the hits they have suffered. The Popular Resistance Committees want to avenge the death of their secretary-general (who Israel assassinated on Friday), but in the absence of their leader they are carrying out disorganized and inefficient attacks just across the security fence. The Islamic Jihad is firing longer-range projectiles but is also having trouble overcoming the assassination of more than 20 of its key members.

Israeli experts surmised on Sunday that “additional long hours” would be required to achieve a cease-fire agreement. This means that the fighting was to continue, at least through Monday. This “injury time” – to borrow a soccer term – is dangerous and requires a lot of discipline on behalf of the IDF (not to be tempted to accrue more successes while jeopardizing lives) and on behalf of the citizens (not to rely on the successes of the past, or as the IDF chief of staff said Sunday, “We mustn’t become intoxicated by the achievements of the Iron Dome”).

If these conditions are fulfilled, and if calm really is at hand, Israel can sum up this latest round of fighting as a success. The main reasons for this success are early planning, initiative and effective direction of the operation – both offensively and defensively. And still, all Israel can achieve is limited, short-term deterrence, accompanied by the knowledge that the next round of violence is just around the corner.

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