Dempsey’s logic

With respect to the Iranian nuclear issue, the world is waking up. It is still not enough, but at least it’s something, especially compared to the past.

Currently, Iran’s nuclear progress generates headlines around the world, not just in Israel. The world is suddenly realizing just how problematic and dangerous this situation really is. All of a sudden it is acceptable to step up sanctions. All of a sudden it is okay to wonder, out loud, whether sanctions, as tough as they may be, are at all effective. Suddenly the word “attack” is no longer offensive, despite declarations made by U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Martin Dempsey.

It took the world some time to realize that initial sanctions, implemented by the U.N. Security Council against Iran in 2006, lacked teeth. The three rounds of sanctions that followed also failed to make much of an impression on Tehran. Only recently, following the decisive report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency in November, which confronted the world with knowledge it had previously refused to accept, did the international community -- at least in part -- decide to up the ante. The EU implemented an embargo on Iranian oil and the U.S. imposed sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank. Over the weekend, the U.S. and the EU also said they were preparing for an unprecedented step: removing Iran from the SWIFT international finance network. Things are starting to move forward.

Sources in the U.S. administration told The Guardian that Iran was not taking any of this seriously: not the sanctions, nor the country’s economic collapse, nor the threat of a military attack. This is not exactly what you’d call a rational regime, despite Dempsey’s thoughts to the contrary. The Iranian regime’s priorities are a bit different from the priorities we are familiar with. The goal of the ayatollahs is self-preservation.

In their view, this means the use of nuclear weapons, terrorism and alliances with regimes like that of Bashar Assad’s Syria and organizations like Hezbollah. This is Iran’s version of logic. On Saturday, Dempsey managed to redefine the concept. For him, the Iranian regime is “a rational player,” and attacking it would not be “prudent.” Perhaps you need four stars on your epaulet to understand this logic.

Tehran is starting to feel the heat. Externally, sanctions have gotten tougher and the military option is on the table. Domestically, Iran’s economy is in crisis, unemployment is rising, the street has started to grumble and its ally Assad is in trouble. A rational regime would yield, but not the ayatollahs’ regime, which is seeking talks merely in order to buy more time.

I am not sure that the administration in Washington really understands this. Perhaps the Saudis will be better able to persuade them than we are.

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